De Stemming van 6 september |
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Door
het conflict rondom Geert Wilders staat de VVD op de laagste |
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score sinds de
laatste verkiezingen. Het CDA profiteert er niet van. |
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De Groep
Wilders zou nu meteen 4 zetels krijgen. |
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De helft is
afkomstig van de LPF en de andere helft van de VVD. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
30/8 |
6/9 |
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CDA |
44 |
36 |
33 |
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PvdA |
42 |
48 |
48 |
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VVD |
27 |
24 |
23 |
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LPF |
8 |
2 |
2 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
9 |
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SP |
9 |
14 |
14 |
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D66 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
6 |
6 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Groep Wilders |
1 |
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4 |
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Partij
voor de Dieren |
0 |
3 |
3 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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De zwakke
positie van CDA en PvdA is het best te herkennen door het relatief lage
percentage kiezers |
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van CDA en VVD
die de eigen partij een kans geven op een stem (rond de 70%). |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/09/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/09/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/09/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/09/04 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
26% |
27% |
91% |
79% |
69% |
71% |
9% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
26% |
24% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
40% |
36% |
17% |
26% |
21% |
15% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
92% |
9% |
15% |
13% |
10% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
30% |
25% |
47% |
38% |
52% |
36% |
9% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
93% |
87% |
80% |
69% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
10% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
19% |
13% |
14% |
15% |
GrLinks |
22% |
17% |
18% |
19% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
6% |
55% |
32% |
43% |
33% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
D66 |
28% |
18% |
24% |
17% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
11% |
39% |
20% |
17% |
13% |
16% |
15% |
22% |
20% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
30% |
27% |
11% |
14% |
15% |
12% |
42% |
32% |
47% |
46% |
4% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
7% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
12% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
SGP |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
Groep
Wilders |
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6% |
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1% |
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1% |
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15% |
Partij
voor de Dieren |
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5% |
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0% |
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3% |
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5% |
*) heeft CDA
gestemd bij vorige verkiezingen |
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Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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Het vertrouwen
in de politiek blijft onveranderd laag. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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21/10/02 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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02/12/02 |
5,0 |
5,4 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
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23/12/02 |
4,7 |
5,3 |
4,4 |
4,8 |
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13/01/03 |
5,2 |
5,5 |
5,3 |
5,4 |
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27/01/03 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
5,7 |
5,8 |
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17/02/03 |
5,7 |
6,3 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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31/03/03 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,1 |
4,5 |
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14/04/03 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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9/06/03 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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22/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,1 |
3,1 |
4,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,3 |
5,9 |
3,1 |
5,3 |
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5/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
3,2 |
4,6 |
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5/09/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
2,8 |
4,6 |
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Het
vertrouwen voor de meeste politici is naar het minimum gedaald. |
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Dit geldt met
name voor Van Aartsen en Herben. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Verhaagen 9/06/03 |
4,2 |
5,2 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
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Verhaagen 29/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,4 |
2,8 |
4,8 |
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Verhaagen 5/09/04 |
3,9 |
5,2 |
2,7 |
4,7 |
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Bos 21/10/02 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/01/03 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 5/09/04 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
6,7 |
3,7 |
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Van
Aartsen 9/06/03 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
5,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 29/09/03 |
4,4 |
5,1 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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Van Aartsen 5/09/04 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
5,2 |
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Marijnissen 7/10/02 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/01/03 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/04/03 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 5/09/04 |
5,2 |
4,6 |
6,3 |
4,0 |
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Halsema 21/11/02 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/01/03 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/04/03 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Halsema 5/09/04 |
4,8 |
4,4 |
5,7 |
3,7 |
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Herben 21/10/02 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/01/03 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/04/03 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 5/09/04 |
3,6 |
4,3 |
2,6 |
4,4 |
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Ditrich 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 29/09/03 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
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Ditrich 5/09/04 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
4,5 |
4,9 |
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Het blijft
interessant dat eigenlijk geen enkele combinatie van partijen een duidelijke
voorkeur |
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geniet. De
huidige regeringscombinatie scoort 17%. CDA+PvdA en CDA+VVD scoren iets |
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hoger. |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
14/4 |
2/6 |
5/09 |
5/09 |
5/09 |
5/09 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
28% |
29% |
22% |
24% |
37% |
6% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
28% |
16% |
10% |
12% |
0% |
24% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
17% |
27% |
17% |
30% |
0% |
37% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
18% |
15% |
21% |
10% |
42% |
18% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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8% |
12% |
0% |
7% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
9% |
9% |
22% |
12% |
20% |
9% |
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Vertrouwen in
de regering is de afgelopen week van de weeromstuit weer gedaald. |
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Bij de
VVD-kiezers is de score lager dan in het afgelopen jaar gemeten. |
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Vertrouwen |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in de regering |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
D66 |
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9/06/03 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
3,0 |
5,8 |
5,2 |
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16/06/03 |
4,8 |
6,1 |
3,6 |
5,7 |
5,0 |
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18/08/03 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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1/09/03 |
4,2 |
6,0 |
2,5 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
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22/09/03 |
3,8 |
5,4 |
2,3 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,1 |
6,1 |
2,5 |
5,5 |
4,2 |
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8/12/03 |
3,7 |
5,2 |
2,3 |
4,8 |
3,7 |
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19/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
2,8 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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5/09/04 |
3,8 |
5,6 |
2,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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Ook de
premier en de vice-premiers scoren laag. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 7/10/02 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 9/06/03 |
4,7 |
6,4 |
3,3 |
5,6 |
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Balkenende 29/09/03 |
4,1 |
6,2 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
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Balkenende 5/09/04 |
4,1 |
5,9 |
2,4 |
4,8 |
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Zalm 7/10/02 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/01/03 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 29/09/03 |
4,3 |
5,5 |
2,8 |
6,1 |
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Zalm 5/09/04 |
4,2 |
5,4 |
2,8 |
5,7 |
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De
Graaf 7/10/02 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
6,7 |
5,8 |
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De
Graaf 30/12/02 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
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De
Graaf 29/09/03 |
4,5 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
5,2 |
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De Graaf 5/09/04 |
4,2 |
5,0 |
3,7 |
4,7 |
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Terwijl in de
afgelopen jaren ruim 50% dacht dat het kabinet de rit uit zal zitten |
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is de score
nu weer onder de 50%. Met name de VVD-kiezers zijn negatiever. |
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Verwachte levensduur
van |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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huidig kabinet |
2/6 |
13/10 |
5/9 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ze
maken de vier jaar vol |
47% |
39% |
46% |
65% |
30% |
56% |
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Ze
vallen in 2006 |
4% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
3% |
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Ze
vallen in 2005 |
13% |
10% |
26% |
21% |
34% |
26% |
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Ze
vallen in de 2e helft 2004 |
15% |
19% |
13% |
5% |
20% |
5% |
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Ze
vallen in de1e helft 2004 |
15% |
16% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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Ze
vallen nog dit jaar |
6% |
5% |
4% |
1% |
6% |
2% |
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Weet
niet/geen antwoord |
6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
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