De Stemming van 12 juli |
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Wederom weinig
verschuivingen. Wel versterkt het CDA haar positie |
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geleidelijk. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
5/7 |
12/7 |
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CDA |
44 |
34 |
35 |
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PvdA |
42 |
47 |
46 |
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VVD |
28 |
27 |
27 |
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LPF |
8 |
3 |
3 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
10 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
13 |
13 |
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D66 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
6 |
6 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Partij voor de Dieren |
0 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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Langzamerhand
zien we toch wat verschuivingen, waarbij CDA terugkomt |
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van haar dieptepunt. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
12/07/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
12/07/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
12/07/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
12/07/04 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
26% |
28% |
91% |
79% |
69% |
71% |
9% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
26% |
26% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
17% |
26% |
21% |
13% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
92% |
9% |
15% |
13% |
6% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
30% |
29% |
47% |
38% |
52% |
36% |
9% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
93% |
87% |
80% |
75% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
12% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
19% |
13% |
14% |
22% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
24% |
20% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
2% |
55% |
32% |
43% |
43% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
18% |
19% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
18% |
39% |
20% |
17% |
15% |
16% |
15% |
22% |
19% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
30% |
27% |
11% |
14% |
15% |
8% |
42% |
32% |
47% |
51% |
4% |
6% |
9% |
8% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
7% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
SGP |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Partij
voor de Dieren |
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5% |
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1% |
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3% |
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1% |
*)
heeft CDA gestemd bij vorige verkiezingen |
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Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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Vertrouwen in
de politiek is ook iets aan het herstellen |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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21/10/02 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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02/12/02 |
5,0 |
5,4 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
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23/12/02 |
4,7 |
5,3 |
4,4 |
4,8 |
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13/01/03 |
5,2 |
5,5 |
5,3 |
5,4 |
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27/01/03 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
5,7 |
5,8 |
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17/02/03 |
5,7 |
6,3 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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31/03/03 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,1 |
4,5 |
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14/04/03 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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9/06/03 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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22/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,1 |
3,1 |
4,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,3 |
5,9 |
3,1 |
5,3 |
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5/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
3,2 |
4,6 |
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12/07/04 |
4,2 |
5,4 |
3,2 |
4,9 |
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De meeste
politici blijven dicht staan bij hun laagste positie. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Verhaagen 9/06/03 |
4,2 |
5,2 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
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Verhaagen 29/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,4 |
2,8 |
4,8 |
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Verhaagen 12/07/04 |
4,1 |
5,6 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Bos 21/10/02 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/01/03 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 12/07/04 |
4,8 |
4,0 |
6,8 |
3,7 |
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Van
Aartsen 9/06/03 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
5,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 29/09/03 |
4,4 |
5,1 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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Van Aartsen 12/07/04 |
4,4 |
5,2 |
3,5 |
5,7 |
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Marijnissen 7/10/02 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/01/03 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/04/03 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 12/07/04 |
5,1 |
4,3 |
6,5 |
3,9 |
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Halsema 21/11/02 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/01/03 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/04/03 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Halsema 12/07/04 |
4,6 |
3,9 |
6,1 |
3,7 |
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Herben 21/10/02 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/01/03 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/04/03 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 12/07/04 |
3,9 |
4,3 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Ditrich 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 29/09/03 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
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Ditrich 12/07/04 |
4,7 |
4,9 |
4,6 |
5,0 |
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CDA+PvdA
staat nu het hoogste, maar nog steeds met een heel lage score. |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
14/4 |
2/6 |
12/7 |
12/7 |
12/7 |
12/7 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
28% |
29% |
22% |
20% |
42% |
3% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
28% |
16% |
13% |
12% |
0% |
29% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
17% |
27% |
17% |
25% |
3% |
40% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
18% |
15% |
18% |
3% |
37% |
14% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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8% |
14% |
0% |
4% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
9% |
9% |
24% |
26% |
18% |
10% |
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Vertrouwen in de
regering blijft laag. |
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Vertrouwen |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in de regering |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
D66 |
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9/06/03 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
3,0 |
5,8 |
5,2 |
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16/06/03 |
4,8 |
6,1 |
3,6 |
5,7 |
5,0 |
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18/08/03 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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1/09/03 |
4,2 |
6,0 |
2,5 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
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22/09/03 |
3,8 |
5,4 |
2,3 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,1 |
6,1 |
2,5 |
5,5 |
4,2 |
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8/12/03 |
3,7 |
5,2 |
2,3 |
4,8 |
3,7 |
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19/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
2,8 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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12/07/04 |
4,0 |
5,7 |
2,3 |
5,0 |
3,7 |
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Balkenende is
wat weer aan het wegzakken. Na zijn opmerkingen over de aanval |
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op Advocaat
was hij naar 4.5 gestegen. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 7/10/02 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 9/06/03 |
4,7 |
6,4 |
3,3 |
5,6 |
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Balkenende 29/09/03 |
4,1 |
6,2 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
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Balkenende 12/07/04 |
4,2 |
6,1 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
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Zalm 7/10/02 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/01/03 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 29/09/03 |
4,3 |
5,5 |
2,8 |
6,1 |
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Zalm 12/07/04 |
4,4 |
5,6 |
2,9 |
6,1 |
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De
Graaf 7/10/02 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
6,7 |
5,8 |
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De
Graaf 30/12/02 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
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De
Graaf 29/09/03 |
4,5 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
5,2 |
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De Graaf 12/07/04 |
4,4 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
5,1 |
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Ook de score
van de verwachte levensduur van de regering verandert amper |
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Het blijft de
laatste tijd rondom 50% scoren. |
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Verwachte levensduur
van |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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huidig kabinet |
2/6 |
13/10 |
12/7 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ze
maken de vier jaar vol |
47% |
39% |
51% |
75% |
30% |
67% |
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Ze
vallen in 2006 |
4% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
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Ze
vallen in 2005 |
13% |
10% |
22% |
11% |
31% |
19% |
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Ze
vallen in de 2e helft 2004 |
15% |
19% |
12% |
6% |
22% |
6% |
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Ze
vallen in de1e helft 2004 |
15% |
16% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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Ze
vallen nog dit jaar |
6% |
5% |
4% |
1% |
9% |
1% |
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Weet
niet/geen antwoord |
6% |
8% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
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