De Stemming van 5 juli |
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Deze week is
het CDA gestegen onder invloed van de betere score van |
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Balkenende
onder degenen die in 2003 CDA hebben gestemd, maar |
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langzamerhand
steeds minder zagen in het CDA. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
28/6 |
5/7 |
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CDA |
44 |
32 |
34 |
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PvdA |
42 |
47 |
47 |
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VVD |
28 |
27 |
27 |
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LPF |
8 |
3 |
3 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
11 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
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D66 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
5 |
6 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Partij voor de Dieren |
0 |
3 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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De potentie
van de VVD staat op de laagste score sinds een grote tijd. |
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Maar ook de SP
is aan het wegzakken. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/07/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/07/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/07/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
5/07/04 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
26% |
26% |
91% |
79% |
69% |
72% |
9% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
26% |
20% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
40% |
37% |
17% |
26% |
21% |
11% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
97% |
9% |
15% |
13% |
5% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
30% |
26% |
47% |
38% |
52% |
22% |
9% |
3% |
3% |
10% |
93% |
87% |
80% |
75% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
11% |
13% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
19% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
19% |
13% |
14% |
18% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
24% |
20% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
12% |
55% |
32% |
43% |
30% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
8% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
18% |
20% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
39% |
20% |
17% |
29% |
16% |
15% |
22% |
13% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
30% |
19% |
11% |
14% |
15% |
13% |
42% |
32% |
47% |
32% |
4% |
6% |
9% |
5% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
7% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
SGP |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
Partij
voor de Dieren |
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6% |
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5% |
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4% |
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4% |
*) heeft CDA
gestemd bij vorige verkiezingen |
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Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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Vertrouwen in
de politiek staat dus vrijwel op dezelfde score als een half jaar geleden. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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21/10/02 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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02/12/02 |
5,0 |
5,4 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
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23/12/02 |
4,7 |
5,3 |
4,4 |
4,8 |
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13/01/03 |
5,2 |
5,5 |
5,3 |
5,4 |
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27/01/03 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
5,7 |
5,8 |
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17/02/03 |
5,7 |
6,3 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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31/03/03 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,1 |
4,5 |
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14/04/03 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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9/06/03 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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22/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,1 |
3,1 |
4,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,3 |
5,9 |
3,1 |
5,3 |
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5/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
3,2 |
4,6 |
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5/07/04 |
4,1 |
5,4 |
2,9 |
4,9 |
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De meeste
politici staan dicht bij hun laagste scores. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Verhaagen 9/06/03 |
4,2 |
5,2 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
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Verhaagen 29/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,4 |
2,8 |
4,8 |
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Verhaagen 5/07/04 |
4,0 |
5,6 |
2,7 |
4,9 |
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Bos 21/10/02 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/01/03 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 5/07/04 |
4,6 |
3,5 |
6,7 |
3,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 9/06/03 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
5,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 29/09/03 |
4,4 |
5,1 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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Van Aartsen 5/07/04 |
4,3 |
5,1 |
3,4 |
5,8 |
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Marijnissen 7/10/02 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/01/03 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/04/03 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 5/07/04 |
5,1 |
4,3 |
6,5 |
4,1 |
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Halsema 21/11/02 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/01/03 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/04/03 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Halsema 5/07/04 |
4,6 |
3,6 |
6,1 |
3,5 |
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Herben 21/10/02 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/01/03 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/04/03 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 5/07/04 |
3,9 |
4,4 |
3,1 |
4,9 |
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Ditrich 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 29/09/03 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
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Ditrich 5/07/04 |
4,7 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
4,8 |
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Drie
combinaties scoren vrijwel even hoog. Nog steeds is er geen enkele richting |
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onder de kiezers. |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
14/4 |
2/6 |
5/7 |
5/7 |
5/7 |
5/7 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
28% |
29% |
21% |
15% |
40% |
3% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
28% |
16% |
13% |
13% |
0% |
37% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
17% |
27% |
21% |
42% |
0% |
39% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
18% |
15% |
20% |
5% |
41% |
12% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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7% |
14% |
0% |
2% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
9% |
9% |
19% |
11% |
18% |
7% |
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Vertrouwen in
de regering blijft eveneens laag. |
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Vertrouwen |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in de regering |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
D66 |
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9/06/03 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
3,0 |
5,8 |
5,2 |
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16/06/03 |
4,8 |
6,1 |
3,6 |
5,7 |
5,0 |
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18/08/03 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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1/09/03 |
4,2 |
6,0 |
2,5 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
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22/09/03 |
3,8 |
5,4 |
2,3 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,1 |
6,1 |
2,5 |
5,5 |
4,2 |
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8/12/03 |
3,7 |
5,2 |
2,3 |
4,8 |
3,7 |
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19/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
2,8 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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5/07/04 |
4,0 |
5,8 |
2,2 |
5,0 |
4,1 |
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Balkenende is
in een klap bijna een half punt gestegen. Met name komt dat door |
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de hogere
score onder de CDA-kiezers |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 7/10/02 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 9/06/03 |
4,7 |
6,4 |
3,3 |
5,6 |
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Balkenende 29/09/03 |
4,1 |
6,2 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
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Balkenende 5/07/04 |
4,4 |
6,6 |
2,6 |
5,2 |
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Zalm 7/10/02 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/01/03 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 29/09/03 |
4,3 |
5,5 |
2,8 |
6,1 |
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Zalm 5/07/04 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
2,9 |
6,3 |
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De
Graaf 7/10/02 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
6,7 |
5,8 |
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De
Graaf 30/12/02 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
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De
Graaf 29/09/03 |
4,5 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
5,2 |
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De Graaf 5/07/04 |
4,4 |
4,9 |
3,8 |
5,0 |
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Ook de score
van de verwachte levensduur van de regering verandert amper |
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Verwachte levensduur
van |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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huidig kabinet |
2/6 |
13/10 |
5/7 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ze
maken de vier jaar vol |
47% |
39% |
49% |
72% |
31% |
64% |
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Ze
vallen in 2006 |
4% |
3% |
4% |
1% |
3% |
3% |
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Ze
vallen in 2005 |
13% |
10% |
24% |
13% |
33% |
20% |
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Ze
vallen in de 2e helft 2004 |
15% |
19% |
13% |
5% |
24% |
7% |
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Ze
vallen in de1e helft 2004 |
15% |
16% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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Ze
vallen nog dit jaar |
6% |
5% |
5% |
2% |
8% |
2% |
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Weet
niet/geen antwoord |
6% |
8% |
5% |
7% |
1% |
5% |
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