De Stemming van 28 juni |
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PvdA en VVD
hebben last van de besluitvorming van deze week. |
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PvdA verliest
2 zetels door haar stemgedrag rondom het Irak-mandaat. |
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De VVD staat
op een zetel verlies door het optreden door de |
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EU-grondwet. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
21/6 |
28/6 |
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CDA |
44 |
31 |
32 |
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PvdA |
42 |
49 |
47 |
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VVD |
28 |
28 |
27 |
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LPF |
8 |
3 |
3 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
10 |
11 |
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SP |
9 |
13 |
14 |
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D66 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
5 |
5 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Partij voor de Dieren |
0 |
3 |
3 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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CDA en VVD
blijven laag scoren. Opmerkelijk is dat nu ook de VVD wegzakt. |
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Partij voor de
Dieren staat inmiddels op 8%. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
28/06/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
28/06/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
28/06/04 |
9/09/02 |
20/01/03 |
13/10/03 |
28/06/04 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
26% |
26% |
91% |
79% |
69% |
69% |
9% |
5% |
2% |
3% |
46% |
32% |
26% |
25% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
40% |
39% |
17% |
26% |
21% |
16% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
101% |
9% |
15% |
13% |
10% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
30% |
26% |
47% |
38% |
52% |
23% |
9% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
93% |
87% |
80% |
73% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
11% |
14% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
19% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
19% |
13% |
14% |
20% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
24% |
22% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
12% |
55% |
32% |
43% |
27% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
10% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
11% |
39% |
20% |
17% |
25% |
16% |
15% |
22% |
14% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
30% |
21% |
11% |
14% |
15% |
12% |
42% |
32% |
47% |
26% |
4% |
6% |
9% |
5% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
7% |
5% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Partij
voor de Dieren |
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8% |
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7% |
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5% |
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5% |
*) heeft CDA
gestemd bij vorige verkiezingen |
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Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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Vertrouwen in
de politiek staat dus vrijwel op dezelfde score als een half jaar geleden. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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21/10/02 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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02/12/02 |
5,0 |
5,4 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
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23/12/02 |
4,7 |
5,3 |
4,4 |
4,8 |
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13/01/03 |
5,2 |
5,5 |
5,3 |
5,4 |
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27/01/03 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
5,7 |
5,8 |
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17/02/03 |
5,7 |
6,3 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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31/03/03 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,1 |
4,5 |
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14/04/03 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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9/06/03 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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22/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,1 |
3,1 |
4,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,3 |
5,9 |
3,1 |
5,3 |
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5/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
3,2 |
4,6 |
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28/06/04 |
4,0 |
5,2 |
3,1 |
4,6 |
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De meeste
politici staan op dit moment relatief laag. Van Aartsen is ook |
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duidelijk aan het wegzakken. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Verhaagen 9/06/03 |
4,2 |
5,2 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
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Verhaagen 29/09/03 |
4,0 |
5,4 |
2,8 |
4,8 |
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Verhaagen 28/06/04 |
4,0 |
5,2 |
2,7 |
4,7 |
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Bos 21/10/02 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/01/03 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 28/06/04 |
4,7 |
4,0 |
6,5 |
3,5 |
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Van
Aartsen 9/06/03 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
5,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 29/09/03 |
4,4 |
5,1 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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Van Aartsen 28/06/04 |
4,3 |
4,8 |
3,3 |
5,3 |
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Marijnissen 7/10/02 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/01/03 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/04/03 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 28/06/04 |
5,1 |
4,4 |
6,2 |
4,1 |
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Halsema 21/11/02 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/01/03 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/04/03 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Halsema 28/06/04 |
4,6 |
4,0 |
5,7 |
3,6 |
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Herben 21/10/02 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/01/03 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/04/03 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 28/06/04 |
3,9 |
4,4 |
2,7 |
4,5 |
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Ditrich 21/04/03 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 29/09/03 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
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Ditrich 28/06/04 |
4,6 |
4,8 |
4,4 |
4,7 |
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CDA+PvdA
staat nu het hoogst, maar dat is ook met 23% een lage score. |
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Paars blijft
op de tweede plaats staan. |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
14/4 |
2/6 |
28/6 |
28/6 |
28/6 |
28/6 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
28% |
29% |
23% |
25% |
38% |
2% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
28% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
1% |
36% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
17% |
27% |
17% |
28% |
1% |
33% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
18% |
15% |
20% |
7% |
42% |
16% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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6% |
8% |
0% |
3% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
9% |
9% |
20% |
16% |
18% |
10% |
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Vertrouwen
in de regering blijft ook op een laag niveau. Opmerkelijk is de relatief lage
score onder de VVD-kiezers. |
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Vertrouwen |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in de regering |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
D66 |
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9/06/03 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
3,0 |
5,8 |
5,2 |
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16/06/03 |
4,8 |
6,1 |
3,6 |
5,7 |
5,0 |
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18/08/03 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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1/09/03 |
4,2 |
6,0 |
2,5 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
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22/09/03 |
3,8 |
5,4 |
2,3 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
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20/10/03 |
4,1 |
6,1 |
2,5 |
5,5 |
4,2 |
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8/12/03 |
3,7 |
5,2 |
2,3 |
4,8 |
3,7 |
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19/01/04 |
4,0 |
5,3 |
2,8 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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28/06/04 |
3,8 |
5,5 |
2,3 |
4,7 |
3,8 |
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Ook deze
scores gaan wat naar beneden. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 7/10/02 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 9/06/03 |
4,7 |
6,4 |
3,3 |
5,6 |
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Balkenende 29/09/03 |
4,1 |
6,2 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
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Balkenende 28/06/04 |
4,1 |
5,9 |
2,6 |
4,6 |
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Zalm 7/10/02 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/01/03 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 29/09/03 |
4,3 |
5,5 |
2,8 |
6,1 |
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Zalm 28/06/04 |
4,4 |
5,5 |
2,9 |
5,7 |
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De
Graaf 7/10/02 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
6,7 |
5,8 |
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De
Graaf 30/12/02 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
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De
Graaf 29/09/03 |
4,5 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
5,2 |
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De Graaf 28/06/04 |
4,3 |
4,8 |
3,8 |
4,6 |
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Ongeveer de
helft denkt dat het kabinet de tijd volmaakt. |
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Verwachte levensduur
van |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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huidig kabinet |
2/6 |
13/10 |
28/6 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ze
maken de vier jaar vol |
47% |
39% |
50% |
66% |
31% |
60% |
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Ze
vallen in 2006 |
4% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
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Ze
vallen in 2005 |
13% |
10% |
21% |
15% |
29% |
20% |
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Ze
vallen in de 2e helft 2004 |
15% |
19% |
15% |
10% |
23% |
10% |
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Ze
vallen in de1e helft 2004 |
15% |
16% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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Ze
vallen nog dit jaar |
6% |
5% |
5% |
2% |
6% |
2% |
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Weet
niet/geen antwoord |
6% |
8% |
7% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
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Ten
aanzien van de verwachtingen rondom de verschillende ministers is er weer
een |
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samengesteld
overzicht gemaakt. De verschuivingen in een jaar zijn interessant. Verdonk en |
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Kamp zijn de
grootste stijgers, Donner de grootste daler. |
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Saldo hoge-lage
verwachtingen |
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van de ministers |
9/6/03 |
15/9/03 |
22/12/03 |
16/2/04 |
01/3/04 |
21/6/04 |
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Bot |
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-7% |
-8% |
-6% |
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Zalm |
9% |
-21% |
-14% |
-8% |
-6% |
-15% |
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Kamp |
-8% |
-27% |
-23% |
-20% |
-19% |
-17% |
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Verdonk |
-17% |
-29% |
-28% |
-9% |
-14% |
-20% |
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Hoogervorst |
-9% |
-29% |
-27% |
-21% |
-27% |
-24% |
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Veerman |
-20% |
-33% |
-26% |
-25% |
-25% |
-25% |
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Brinkhorst |
-15% |
-31% |
-28% |
-26% |
-27% |
-27% |
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De
Geus |
-9% |
-24% |
-27% |
-25% |
-29% |
-28% |
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Remkes |
-21% |
-35% |
-30% |
-29% |
-28% |
-29% |
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Dekker |
-17% |
-32% |
-30% |
-26% |
-27% |
-29% |
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De
Graaf |
-9% |
-24% |
-20% |
-26% |
-28% |
-30% |
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Van
Aardenne |
-16% |
-31% |
-29% |
-24% |
-27% |
-31% |
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Peijs |
-18% |
-30% |
-24% |
-24% |
-24% |
-33% |
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van
den Hoeven |
-10% |
-21% |
-25% |
-22% |
-24% |
-34% |
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Balkenende |
-25% |
-39% |
-31% |
-37% |
-38% |
-37% |
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Donner |
-2% |
-18% |
-17% |
-24% |
-29% |
-40% |
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