De Stemming van 15 december |
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Na
de week die in het teken stond van de koopkrachtplaatjes van de chronisch
zieken stond |
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de afgelopen
week in het teken van een troonopvolger. Onder de aanhang van CDA en VVD |
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had dat een
positieve werking. Tegelijkertijd verzwakte de positie van de PvdA wat. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
7/4 |
8/12 |
15/12 |
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CDA |
44 |
38 |
30 |
32 |
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PvdA |
42 |
34 |
51 |
48 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
28 |
29 |
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LPF |
8 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
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D66 |
6 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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Zowel CDA als
VVD zijn de afgelopen week van hun dieptepunt wat teruggekomen. |
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Tegelijkertijd
is de positie van de PvdA weer wat verzwakt. |
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De LPF begint steeds
verder weg te zakken. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
15/12 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
15/12 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
15/12 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
15/12 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
27% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
71% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
30% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
12% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
90% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
4% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
30% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
44% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
80% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
9% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
9% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
16% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
23% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
7% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
45% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
19% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
18% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
19% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
29% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
13% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
53% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
9% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
18% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
*)
heeft CDA gestemd bij vorige verkiezingen |
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Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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Na
het record dieptepunt van de vorige week is er deze week sprake van een
forse |
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"rebound"
naar het niveau van de afgelopen maanden. |
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De koninklijke
baby heeft duidelijk een positief effect gehad. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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14/4 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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9/6 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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1/9 |
4,3 |
5,7 |
3,0 |
5,0 |
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15/9 |
4,2 |
5,3 |
3,3 |
4,9 |
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13/10 |
4,0 |
5,2 |
2,9 |
4,9 |
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20/10 |
4,3 |
5,9 |
3,1 |
5,3 |
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15/12 |
4,3 |
5,7 |
3,1 |
4,9 |
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De scores van
de politici zijn ook weer teruggekomen naar het niveau dat de laatste maanden |
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min of meer
"normaal" was. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Verhaagen 9/6 |
4,2 |
5,2 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
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Verhaagen 29/9 |
4,0 |
5,4 |
2,8 |
4,8 |
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Verhaagen 15/12 |
4,0 |
5,1 |
2,9 |
4,9 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/4 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 15/12 |
5,1 |
4,2 |
6,8 |
4,0 |
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Van
Aartsen 9/6 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
5,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 29/9 |
4,4 |
5,1 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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Van Aartsen 15/12 |
4,6 |
5,3 |
3,8 |
5,8 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/4 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 15/12 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
6,7 |
4,1 |
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Halsema 21/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/4 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Vos 15/12 |
4,3 |
4,3 |
4,6 |
4,2 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/4 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 15/12 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
3,1 |
4,6 |
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Ditrich 21/4 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 29/9 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
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Ditrich 15/12 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
5,0 |
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Nog steeds is
er geen expliciete voorkeur meer voor een bepaalde regeringscombinatie. |
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Drie combinaties scoren
alle rondom de 20%. |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
14/4 |
2/6 |
15/12 |
15/12 |
15/12 |
15/12 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
28% |
29% |
21% |
15% |
45% |
2% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
28% |
16% |
13% |
15% |
1% |
26% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
17% |
27% |
22% |
41% |
1% |
43% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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4% |
6% |
13% |
0% |
2% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
18% |
15% |
18% |
2% |
33% |
17% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
9% |
9% |
21% |
14% |
21% |
11% |
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Het
vertrouwen in de regering is ook weer 0.4 gestegen (minder dan het vertrouwen
in de politiek). |
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Vertrouwen |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in de regering |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
D66 |
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9/6 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
3,0 |
5,8 |
5,2 |
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16/6 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
3,1 |
6,0 |
5,0 |
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18/8 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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15/9 |
4,0 |
5,6 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
3,9 |
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13/10 |
3,8 |
5,6 |
2,3 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
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20/10 |
4,3 |
6,1 |
2,5 |
5,5 |
4,2 |
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8/12 |
3,7 |
5,2 |
2,3 |
4,8 |
3,7 |
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15/12 |
4,1 |
5,8 |
2,5 |
5,2 |
3,8 |
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Ook hier zien
we het "herstel" dat we bij de andere score van vertrouwen ook
vaststellen. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 9/6 |
4,7 |
6,4 |
3,3 |
5,6 |
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Balkenende 29/9 |
4,1 |
6,2 |
2,5 |
5,1 |
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Balkenende 15/12 |
4,4 |
6,4 |
2,6 |
5,2 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 29/9 |
4,3 |
5,5 |
2,8 |
6,1 |
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Zalm 15/12 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
3,3 |
6,6 |
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De
Graaf 07/10 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
6,7 |
5,8 |
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De
Graaf 30/12 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
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De
Graaf 29/9 |
4,5 |
5,0 |
3,8 |
5,2 |
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De Graaf 15/12 |
4,7 |
5,0 |
4,3 |
5,3 |
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Het optimisme
over de levensduur van de regering is weer wat toegenomen. |
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Het neemt nu
een middenpositie in tussen het dieptepunt (39%) en het hoogtepunt (50%). |
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Verwachte levensduur |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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huidig kabinet |
2/6 |
13/10 |
15/12 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ze
maken de vier jaar vol |
47% |
39% |
45% |
68% |
24% |
60% |
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Ze
valen in 2006 |
4% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
6% |
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Ze
vallen in 2005 |
13% |
10% |
11% |
4% |
16% |
12% |
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Ze
vallen in de 2e helft 2004 |
15% |
19% |
22% |
10% |
30% |
15% |
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Ze
vallen in de1e helft 2004 |
15% |
16% |
11% |
7% |
17% |
5% |
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Ze
vallen nog dit jaar |
6% |
5% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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Weet
niet/geen antwoord |
6% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
2% |
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