De
Stemming van 8 september |
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Het CDA is naar het
laagste punt gedaald sinds de verkiezingen van 15 mei 2002. |
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De PvdA naar het hoogste
punt sinds dat moment. Hoewel het CDA al de hele zomer |
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er slecht voor stond is
het de afgelopen week verder weggezakt. Het lijkt erop dat met name |
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het bezoek van
Balkenende aan Bush daar een effect op gehad heeft. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/1 |
1/9 |
8/9 |
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CDA |
44 |
40 |
34 |
32 |
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PvdA |
42 |
39 |
47 |
48 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
28 |
29 |
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LPF |
8 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
10 |
14 |
14 |
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D66 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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De
electorale positie van het CDA wordt steeds slechter. Precies een jaar
geleden gaf nog 46% van |
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de kiezers het CDA een
kans op een stem. Dat is nu nog maar 29%. Ook de VVD is in die periode |
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verzwakt. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
8/9 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
8/9 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
8/9 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
8/9 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
29% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
74% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
2% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
27% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
37% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
11% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
93% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
8% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
30% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
38% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
2% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
80% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
14% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
13% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
27% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
23% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
9% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
33% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
6% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
19% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
21% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
19% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
17% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
27% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
7% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
47% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
*)
heeft CDA gestemd bij vorige verkiezingen |
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Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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Het vertrouwen in de
politiek blijft op een laag niveau staan. |
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Vertoont momenteel een
vergelijkbaar patroon als het vertrouwen in de regering. |
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De scores staan dicht
bij het dieptepunt dat we tot nu toe hebben vastgesteld. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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14/4 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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9/6 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
3,7 |
5,4 |
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1/9 |
4,3 |
5,7 |
3,0 |
5,0 |
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8/9 |
4,4 |
5,8 |
3,4 |
4,8 |
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Bij vrijwel alle
politici zien we scores die dicht bij het dieptepunt staan. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Verhaagen 9/6 |
4,2 |
5,2 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
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Verhaagen 8/9 |
4,2 |
5,6 |
3,0 |
4,9 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/4 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 8/9 |
5,1 |
4,2 |
6,9 |
4,0 |
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Van
Aartsen 9/6 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
5,6 |
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Van
Aartsen 8/9 |
4,4 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
5,1 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/4 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 8/9 |
5,4 |
4,5 |
6,5 |
4,5 |
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Halsema 21/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/4 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Halsema 8/9 |
5,0 |
4,3 |
5,8 |
4,0 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/4 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 8/9 |
3,9 |
4,5 |
2,8 |
4,7 |
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Ditrich 21/4 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 8/9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
4,8 |
5,0 |
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Kabinet en Ministers |
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Het
vertrouwen in de regering staat met 4.2 op een dieptepunt. |
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Balkenende blijft het
ook slecht doen met een score van 4.7 |
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Ook Zalm zit in de hoek
waar de klappen vallen. |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
14/4 |
2/6 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
28% |
29% |
27% |
17% |
52% |
4% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
28% |
16% |
14% |
12% |
0% |
35% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
17% |
27% |
21% |
40% |
1% |
40% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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4% |
6% |
14% |
0% |
3% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
18% |
15% |
15% |
1% |
32% |
10% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
9% |
9% |
17% |
17% |
15% |
8% |
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Vertrouwen
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in de regering |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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9/6 |
4,5 |
5,9 |
3,0 |
5,8 |
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16/6 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
3,1 |
6,0 |
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18/8 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
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8/9 |
4,2 |
6,2 |
2,6 |
5,0 |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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Balkenende 9/6 |
4,7 |
6,4 |
3,3 |
5,6 |
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Balkenende 8/9 |
4,5 |
6,7 |
2,8 |
5,2 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 9/6 |
5,2 |
6,1 |
4,0 |
7,0 |
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Zalm 8/9 |
4,6 |
5,9 |
3,1 |
6,2 |
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De
Graaf 07/10 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
6,7 |
5,8 |
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De
Graaf 30/12 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
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De
Graaf 9/6 |
5,0 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
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De Graaf 8/9 |
4,7 |
5,4 |
4,0 |
5,2 |
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De cruciale issues |
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Ten aanzien van de
belangrijkste poblemen in de samenleving is gevraagd naar de mogelijke |
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oplossingswijze. Daarbij
werd geld vergeleken met betere aanpak. Inmiddels is men van rechts tot links
(met |
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uitzondering van Groen
links) ervan overtuigd dat geld niet de ultieme oplossing is. |
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Men denkt dat het vooral
om het verbeteren van de efficientie en organisatie gaat, ondanks het feit
dat men er |
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wel extra geld voor zou
willen geven (althans voor de medische zorg, onderwijs, ouderenzorg en
veiligheid). |
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Moet worden verbeterd
door |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
LPF |
SP |
GrLinks |
D66 |
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efficienter/betere
organisatie |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
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zorg voor ouderen |
77% |
75% |
81% |
73% |
82% |
86% |
66% |
65% |
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veilgheid |
74% |
71% |
80% |
70% |
80% |
72% |
65% |
76% |
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onderwijs |
68% |
74% |
58% |
85% |
81% |
60% |
34% |
39% |
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medische
zorg |
68% |
71% |
63% |
81% |
75% |
60% |
36% |
73% |
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systeem
soc.uitkeringen |
66% |
68% |
61% |
80% |
87% |
42% |
50% |
70% |
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Is bereid meer
belastingen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
LPF |
SP |
GrLinks |
D66 |
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te betalen voor |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
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de kwaliteit van
de medische zorg |
51% |
51% |
52% |
39% |
33% |
56% |
66% |
46% |
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de kwaliteit van de ouderen zorg |
50% |
49% |
55% |
39% |
32% |
52% |
56% |
54% |
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verbetering
van het onderwijs |
46% |
43% |
48% |
33% |
30% |
49% |
88% |
81% |
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verhoging
van de veiligheid |
38% |
53% |
24% |
43% |
42% |
28% |
22% |
24% |
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verbeteringen
van de soc.uitk. |
17% |
11% |
24% |
4% |
7% |
49% |
43% |
12% |
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voor
geen van deze |
16% |
13% |
14% |
26% |
39% |
16% |
3% |
6% |
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weet
niet/geen mening |
2% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
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Totaal |
220% |
224% |
216% |
186% |
183% |
254% |
278% |
225% |
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kan bezuinigd worden op |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
LPF |
SP |
GrLinks |
D66 |
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8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
8/9 |
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sociale
uitkeringen |
37% |
43% |
20% |
62% |
50% |
12% |
10% |
47% |
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kwaliteit
van de medische zorg |
9% |
11% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
2% |
12% |
6% |
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onderwijs |
9% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
10% |
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veiligheid |
9% |
6% |
9% |
9% |
6% |
10% |
14% |
21% |
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kwaliteit
van de ouderen zorg |
4% |
2% |
4% |
7% |
4% |
4% |
10% |
1% |
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op geen van deze |
48% |
41% |
64% |
30% |
43% |
77% |
65% |
37% |
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weet
niet/geen antwoord |
3% |
3% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
4% |
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Total |
118% |
117% |
115% |
126% |
119% |
112% |
119% |
127% |
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