De
Stemming van 19 mei |
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Met name de
ontwikkelingen rondom de hypotheekrente heeft de VVD |
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de afgelopen week schade
berokkend. CDA+VVD+D66 staan nu slechts op |
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71 zetels. |
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De PvdA versterkt haar
positie en staat vrijwel op haar verkiezingsuitslag. |
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De kleine
oppositiepartijen staan ook op winst. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/1 |
12/5 |
19/5 |
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CDA |
44 |
40 |
33 |
34 |
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PvdA |
42 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
32 |
29 |
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LPF |
8 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
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D66 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale potentie van
de partijen |
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De positie van het CDA
en de VVD is qua potentieel aan het verzwakken. |
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D66 is in de afgelopen
maanden stabiel gebleven. Op dit moment heeft |
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haar deelname aan een
kabinet met CDA+VVD geen negatief effect. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
19/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
19/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
19/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
19/5 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
31% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
80% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
30% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
16% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
90% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
5% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
35% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
50% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
91% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
14% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
15% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
17% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
22% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
6% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
41% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
20% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
15% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
21% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
25% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
5% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
44% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
16% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
) heeft CDA gestemd bij
vorige verkiezingen |
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De formatie |
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De regeringscombinatie
CDA+VVD+D66 wordt nog steeds door 28% als de meest |
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gewenste combinatie
gezien. CDA+PvdA door een even groot deel der kiezers. |
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Deze week wordt men wel
wat positiever over de levensduur van dit kabinet. |
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Nu denkt nog
"maar" 53% dat er nieuwe verkiezingen voor 2006 zullen zijn. |
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Het CDA is het meest
positief over de verwachte levensduur. 47% denkt dat |
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dit kabinet de hele vier
jaar uitzit. |
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Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
47% |
28% |
28% |
18% |
54% |
3% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
24% |
28% |
16% |
20% |
2% |
27% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
15% |
17% |
28% |
44% |
3% |
58% |
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CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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14% |
1% |
30% |
8% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
7% |
18% |
6% |
11% |
0% |
2% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
2% |
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Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
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formatie |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
12/5 |
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CDA+PvdA |
63% |
77% |
8% |
0% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
50% |
2% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
18% |
93% |
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PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
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weet
niet |
8% |
9% |
21% |
3% |
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Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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beeindigd |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
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februari |
11% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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maart |
35% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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april |
29% |
25% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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mei |
15% |
44% |
19% |
27% |
30% |
22% |
31% |
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juni |
5% |
14% |
36% |
56% |
56% |
64% |
55% |
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juli |
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14% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
10% |
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augustus |
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11% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
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september |
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2% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
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later |
5% |
16% |
19% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
2% |
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Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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verkiezingen |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
19/5 |
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in 2003 |
5% |
11% |
19% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
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in
2004 |
23% |
23% |
33% |
29% |
23% |
41% |
14% |
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in
2005 |
17% |
18% |
13% |
18% |
10% |
25% |
21% |
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in
2006 |
11% |
10% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
20% |
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in
2007 |
35% |
27% |
18% |
30% |
47% |
17% |
34% |
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weet
ik niet |
10% |
12% |
10% |
7% |
8% |
6% |
8% |
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Terwijl de vorige week
nog meer dan de helft een nieuwe vorm van kabinetsformatie |
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wenste, loopt dat
percentage nu weer wat terug (47%). |
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Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
19/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
64% |
77% |
85% |
78% |
89% |
87% |
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Nee |
31% |
20% |
13% |
20% |
8% |
12% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
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Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
19/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
36% |
35% |
47% |
24% |
40% |
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Afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
52% |
53% |
39% |
65% |
50% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
13% |
13% |
14% |
10% |
11% |
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Vorming regering |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
19/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
45% |
47% |
36% |
57% |
44% |
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Nederlands systeem |
53% |
47% |
46% |
59% |
37% |
46% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
10% |
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Wenst in regeeraccoord
voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
19/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
61% |
62% |
66% |
61% |
74% |
62% |
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Nee |
20% |
21% |
21% |
26% |
15% |
23% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
11% |
15% |
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Vertrouwen in politiek en
politici |
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Het vertrouwen in de
politiek en politici blijft laag. Het is wel iets hoger dan |
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het dieptepunt half
april, maar het zijn nog steeds cijfers die aangeven |
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dat we in Nederland een
leiderschapscrisis kennen. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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14/4 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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19/5 |
4,5 |
5,7 |
3,5 |
5,4 |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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Balkenende 21/4 |
4,4 |
6,5 |
2,6 |
5,1 |
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Balkenende 19/5 |
4,7 |
6,7 |
3,2 |
5,5 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/4 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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Bos 19/5 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
7,1 |
4,1 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 21/4 |
4,9 |
5,7 |
3,5 |
6,7 |
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Zalm 19/5 |
5,0 |
6,2 |
3,9 |
6,8 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 21/4 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 19/5 |
5,5 |
4,7 |
6,8 |
4,4 |
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Halsema 212/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 21/4 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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Halsema 19/5 |
5,1 |
4,3 |
6,4 |
3,9 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 21/4 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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Herben 19/5 |
4,1 |
5,1 |
2,9 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 21/4 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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Ditrich 19/5 |
4,9 |
5,3 |
4,9 |
5,1 |
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Van Aartsen 19/5 |
4,8 |
5,3 |
4,4 |
5,8 |
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