| De
Stemming van 31 maart |
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| De positie van de PvdA
is, onder invloed van de Irak-discussie verzwakt. De score |
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| van 35 is de laagste
sinds het RTL4 debat bij de start van de campagne. |
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| Dit hangt duidelijk
samen met de verzwakking van de positie van Bos, zoals we verderop zullen
zien. |
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| Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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| in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
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| CDA |
44 |
40 |
38 |
39 |
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| PvdA |
42 |
39 |
38 |
35 |
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| VVD |
28 |
30 |
32 |
31 |
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| LPF |
8 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
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| Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
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| SP |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
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| D66 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
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| ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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| SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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| Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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| Electorale potentie van
de partijen |
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| De drie grote partijen
staan vrijwel gelijk. Opmerkelijk is de verzwakking van de PvdA onder |
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| de eigen aanhang van
januari 2003. |
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| Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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| |
Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
| in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
31/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
31/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
31/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
31/3 |
| CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
35% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
90% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
6% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
27% |
| PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
35% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
12% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
88% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
5% |
| VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
36% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
47% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
6% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
95% |
| LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
16% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
22% |
| GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
22% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
4% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
39% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
| D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
19% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
25% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
| SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
22% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
5% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
36% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
2% |
| ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
12% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
| SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
| *) kiezer CDA betekent
CDA gestemd in mei 2002/januari 2003 |
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| Gewenste
regeringscombinatie |
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| De
combinatie CDA+PvdA vegint langzamerhand in vorkeur te verzwakken. |
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| Opmerkelijk is echter
dat de combinatie met CDA+VVD erin ook aan het afnemen is. |
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| De CDA-aanhang heeft een
wat grotere voorkeur voor een combinatie CDA+VVD dan |
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| CDA+PvdA |
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| Men
verwacht het einde van de formatie steeds later in de tijd. Gemiddeld wordt
het einde nu |
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| al eind mei geplaatst. |
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| Men denkt steeds minder
dat de volgende Tweede Kamerverkiezingen gewoon in 2007 zullen zijn. |
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| Ook de aanhang van CDA
en PvdA denkt dat in overgrote mate. |
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| Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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| Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
48% |
50% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
76% |
7% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
22% |
24% |
25% |
35% |
1% |
48% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
21% |
15% |
14% |
19% |
1% |
32% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
4% |
4% |
7% |
7% |
0% |
14% |
8% |
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| geen
voorkeur |
3% |
3% |
7% |
8% |
2% |
9% |
4% |
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| Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| formatie |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
63% |
79% |
77% |
80% |
83% |
80% |
78% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
8% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
5% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
3% |
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| weet
niet |
8% |
5% |
9% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
7% |
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| Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| beeindigd |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
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| februari |
11% |
12% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| maart |
35% |
37% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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| april |
29% |
29% |
25% |
16% |
15% |
21% |
8% |
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| mei |
15% |
14% |
44% |
45% |
50% |
46% |
37% |
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| juni |
5% |
5% |
14% |
22% |
20% |
19% |
28% |
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| juli |
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7% |
6% |
4% |
9% |
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| augustus |
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3% |
1% |
2% |
7% |
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| later |
5% |
4% |
16% |
9% |
9% |
7% |
11% |
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| Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| verkiezingen |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
31/3 |
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| in 2003 |
5% |
5% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
3% |
10% |
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| in
2004 |
23% |
22% |
23% |
29% |
17% |
27% |
41% |
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| in
2005 |
17% |
19% |
18% |
19% |
21% |
16% |
20% |
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| in
2006 |
11% |
12% |
10% |
9% |
6% |
14% |
10% |
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| in
2007 |
35% |
33% |
27% |
27% |
37% |
30% |
15% |
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| weet
ik niet |
10% |
8% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
6% |
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| Men wordt steeds meer
ontevreden over de duur van de formatie. Inmiddels vindt 77% dat het te lang
duurt. |
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| Twee weken geleden was
dat nog 64%. Ook zien we dat men steeds meer veranderingen van ons systeem
wenst. |
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| 62% hoopt dat er
voorstellen voor die verandering in het regeeraccoord zullen komen. |
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| Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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| |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Ja |
64% |
73% |
77% |
70% |
73% |
92% |
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| Nee |
31% |
22% |
20% |
26% |
25% |
7% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
1% |
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| Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
24/3 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
35% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
39% |
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| afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
55% |
52% |
48% |
55% |
48% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
10% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
13% |
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| Vorming regering |
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| |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
24/3 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
38% |
45% |
40% |
45% |
45% |
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| Nederlands systeem |
53% |
53% |
47% |
51% |
46% |
48% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
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| Wenst in regeeraccoord
voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
24/3 |
24/3 |
31/3 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| direct op basis van uitslag |
61% |
60% |
62% |
53% |
68% |
61% |
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| Nederlands systeem |
20% |
23% |
21% |
29% |
16% |
21% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
17% |
18% |
15% |
18% |
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| Vertrouwen in politiek en
politici |
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| Het
vertrouwen in de politiek is naar het niveau van 5.0 gedaald. Dat was het
"normale" niveau in het |
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| laatste kwartaal van
2002. We zien echter nu dat de CDA-ers wat meer vertrouwen hebben dan toen |
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| en de VVD-ers wat
minder. |
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| Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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| 21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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| 28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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| 11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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| 25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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| 30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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| 06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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| 20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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| 10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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| 24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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| 31/3 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,1 |
4,5 |
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| Ten opzichte van vorige
week is Balkenende in vertrouwen weer iets gestegen. |
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| Bos staat echter op het
laagste punt sinds we gestart zijn met hem te meten. |
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| Opmerkelijk is zijn lage
score onder de PvdA aanhang (6.7). |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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| Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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| Balkenende 1/3 |
5,9 |
7,4 |
4,9 |
6,4 |
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| Balkenende 31/3 |
5,4 |
7,2 |
4,2 |
5,6 |
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| Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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| Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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| Bos 1/3 |
5,7 |
4,9 |
7,4 |
4,7 |
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| Bos 31/3 |
5,0 |
4,7 |
6,7 |
3,7 |
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| Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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| Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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| Zalm 1/3 |
5,4 |
5,9 |
4,4 |
7,1 |
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| Zalm 31/3 |
5,1 |
6,0 |
4,1 |
6,7 |
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| Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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| Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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| Marijnissen 1/3 |
5,5 |
4,8 |
6,6 |
4,2 |
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| Marijnissen 31/3 |
5,2 |
4,5 |
6,1 |
4,0 |
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| Halsema 25/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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| Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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| Halsema 1/3 |
5,2 |
4,5 |
6,3 |
3,9 |
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| Halsema 31/3 |
4,7 |
4,0 |
5,6 |
3,7 |
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| Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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| Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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| Herben 1/3 |
4,2 |
4,6 |
3,0 |
5,4 |
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| Herben 31/3 |
4,1 |
5,1 |
2,8 |
4,8 |
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| Ditrich 1/3 |
5,2 |
4,7 |
5,9 |
4,5 |
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| Ditrich 31/3 |
4,9 |
4,5 |
5,5 |
4,4 |
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