| De
Stemming van 12 mei |
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| Ten opzichte van de
vorige week zien we weinig verschuivingen. |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 staan nu op
73 zetels. Van de drie toekomstige regerings- |
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| partijen is het CDA
op dit moment de grote verliezaar.
VVD+D66 staan op winst. |
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| De PvdA is duidelijk de
grootste partij. |
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| Klein Christelijk valt
ten opzichte van het hoogtepunt van vorige week weer |
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| iets terug. |
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| Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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| in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/1 |
5/5 |
12/5 |
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| CDA |
44 |
40 |
32 |
33 |
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| PvdA |
42 |
39 |
40 |
40 |
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| VVD |
28 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
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| LPF |
8 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
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| Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
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| SP |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
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| D66 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
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| ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
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| SGP |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
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| Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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| Electorale potentie van
de partijen |
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| De positie van de VVD is
deze week weer aan verzwakking onderhevig. Opmerkelijk |
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| zijn de voorkeuren van de
CDA-kiezers. |
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| D66 is niet veel van
potentie veranderd sinds ze aan de formatie meedoen. |
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| Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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| |
Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
| in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
12/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
12/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
12/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
12/5 |
| CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
32% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
80% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
2% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
33% |
| PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
12% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
96% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
3% |
| VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
34% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
37% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
6% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
96% |
| LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
17% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
18% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
30% |
| GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
21% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
6% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
36% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
| D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
20% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
14% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
21% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
19% |
| SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
22% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
3% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
39% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
2% |
| ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
15% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
| SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
| ) heeft CDA gestemd bij
vorige verkiezingen |
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| De formatie |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 is het
kabinet van voorkeur van 28% der kiezers. |
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| Onder CDA- en
VVD-kiezers is het de combinatie die het meest gewenst wordt. |
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| Dat is ook het geval
onder D66-kiezers. |
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| Hoewel men langzamerhand
wat optimistischer wordt over de levensduur van |
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| het nieuwe kabinet
verwacht toch meer dan 50% voor 2006 nieuwe verkiezingen. |
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| Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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| Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
48% |
47% |
28% |
28% |
15% |
55% |
4% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
24% |
28% |
17% |
18% |
1% |
33% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
15% |
17% |
28% |
48% |
1% |
51% |
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| CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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7% |
14% |
0% |
2% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
4% |
7% |
18% |
16% |
1% |
38% |
10% |
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| geen
voorkeur |
3% |
7% |
9% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
0% |
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| Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| formatie |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
63% |
77% |
8% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
50% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
1% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
18% |
93% |
95% |
91% |
98% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
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| weet
niet |
8% |
9% |
21% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
0% |
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| Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| beeindigd |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
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| februari |
11% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| maart |
35% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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| april |
29% |
25% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| mei |
15% |
44% |
19% |
13% |
18% |
9% |
13% |
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| juni |
5% |
14% |
36% |
57% |
55% |
61% |
60% |
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| juli |
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14% |
19% |
14% |
20% |
19% |
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| augustus |
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11% |
4% |
6% |
3% |
4% |
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| september |
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3% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
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| later |
5% |
16% |
19% |
5% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
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| Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| verkiezingen |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
12/5 |
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| in 2003 |
5% |
11% |
19% |
7% |
6% |
10% |
1% |
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| in
2004 |
23% |
23% |
33% |
26% |
9% |
44% |
18% |
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| in
2005 |
17% |
18% |
13% |
21% |
16% |
21% |
27% |
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| in
2006 |
11% |
10% |
7% |
11% |
16% |
7% |
9% |
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| in
2007 |
35% |
27% |
18% |
28% |
39% |
13% |
39% |
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| weet
ik niet |
10% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
14% |
6% |
6% |
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| De lange formatie doet
de wens tot vernieuwingen van ons systeem steeds meer groeien. |
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| Men wil afspraken
binnen het kabinet en niet bij een gedetailleerd regeeraccoord. |
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| En men wil steeds meer
dat de verkiezingsuitslag direct een duidelijke regeringscombinatie oplevert. |
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| Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
12/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Ja |
64% |
77% |
89% |
88% |
93% |
87% |
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| Nee |
31% |
20% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
11% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
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| Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
12/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
36% |
37% |
51% |
28% |
40% |
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| Afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
52% |
54% |
42% |
62% |
55% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
13% |
10% |
8% |
10% |
4% |
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| Vorming regering |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
12/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
45% |
50% |
39% |
59% |
48% |
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| Nederlands systeem |
53% |
47% |
43% |
55% |
35% |
44% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
8% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
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| Wenst in regeeraccoord
voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
12/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Ja |
61% |
62% |
69% |
62% |
73% |
68% |
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| Nee |
20% |
21% |
20% |
26% |
15% |
19% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
11% |
13% |
12% |
13% |
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| Vertrouwen in politiek en
politici |
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| Het vertrouwen in de
politiek is nog steeds laag, maar wel iets aan het herstellen |
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| na de crisis in de
formatie. Vertrouwen in de belangrijke politici blijft laag, maar |
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| stijgt ook weer iets. |
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| Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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|
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| |
Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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| 21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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| 28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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| 11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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| 25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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| 30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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| 06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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| 20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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| 10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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| 24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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| 7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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| 14/4 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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| 12/5 |
4,6 |
5,8 |
3,7 |
5,2 |
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|
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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| Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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| Balkenende 21/4 |
4,4 |
6,5 |
2,6 |
5,1 |
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| Balkenende 12/5 |
4,7 |
6,8 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
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| Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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| Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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| Bos 21/4 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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| Bos 12/5 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
7,1 |
4,0 |
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| Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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| Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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| Zalm 21/4 |
4,9 |
5,7 |
3,5 |
6,7 |
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| Zalm 12/5 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
3,7 |
6,8 |
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| Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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| Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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| Marijnissen 21/4 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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| Marijnissen 12/5 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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| Halsema 212/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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| Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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| Halsema 21/4 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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| Halsema 12/5 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,8 |
3,8 |
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| Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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| Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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| Herben 21/4 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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| Herben 12/5 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,9 |
4,9 |
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| Ditrich 21/4 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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| Ditrich 12/5 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
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