| De Stemming van 5 mei |
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| Onder
invloed van de ontwikkelingen rondom de formatie hebben zich in de |
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| afgelopen week
een aantal interessante ontwikkelingen voltrokken. De meest belangrijke was |
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| dat
het verlies van het CDA de vorige week vooral naar de VVD ging en deze week
in |
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| belangrijke
mate naar ChristenUnie en SGP is gegaan! |
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| D66 lijdt geen
schade door de combinatie met CDA en VVD. De PvdA is verder |
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| aan het herstellen. |
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| Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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| in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
28/4 |
5/5 |
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| CDA |
44 |
40 |
33 |
32 |
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| PvdA |
42 |
39 |
39 |
40 |
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| VVD |
28 |
30 |
35 |
31 |
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| LPF |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
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| Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
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| SP |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
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| D66 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
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| ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
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| SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
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| Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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| Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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| De positie van
het CDA is verder aan het verzwakken. |
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| De versterking
van de positie van ChristenUnie en SGP is duidelijk herkenbaar. |
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| Bij CDA-kiezers
is de positie van deze partijen duidelijk versterkt. |
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| Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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| |
Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
| in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
5/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
5/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
5/5 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
5/5 |
| CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
29% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
76% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
25% |
| PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
14% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
3% |
| VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
37% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
44% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
6% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
97% |
| LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
13% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
29% |
| GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
23% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
6% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
41% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
| D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
21% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
15% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
25% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
| SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
25% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
10% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
45% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
2% |
| ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
| ) heeft CDA gestemd bij
vorige verkiezingen |
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| De formatie |
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| CDA+PvdA is nog
steeds favoriet bij de kiezers. Met name komt dit door de "linkse"
kiezers. |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 is
het populairst bij de CDA, VVD en D66 kiezers. |
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| Inmiddels
is vrijwel iedereen ervan overtuigd dat er een CDA+VVD+D66-regering zal
komen. |
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| Deze regering
zal volgens de meeste Nederlanders er in juni zijn. |
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| 54%
denkt dat er voor 2006 weer nieuwe verkiezingen zullen zijn. |
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| CDA
en VVD - kiezers (inclusief D66-kiezers) zijn wat optimistischer (circa 40%
denkt dat er nieuwe |
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| verkiezingen voor 2006
zijn). |
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| Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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| Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
48% |
47% |
28% |
30% |
16% |
58% |
4% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
24% |
28% |
17% |
16% |
0% |
43% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
15% |
17% |
27% |
44% |
3% |
50% |
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| CDA +VVD+CU+SGP |
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7% |
16% |
0% |
1% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
4% |
7% |
18% |
13% |
2% |
31% |
2% |
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| geen
voorkeur |
3% |
7% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
1% |
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| Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| formatie |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
63% |
77% |
8% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
50% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
1% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
18% |
91% |
91% |
90% |
97% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
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| weet niet |
8% |
9% |
21% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
1% |
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| Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| beeindigd |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
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| februari |
11% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| maart |
35% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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| april |
29% |
25% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| mei |
15% |
44% |
19% |
15% |
20% |
13% |
17% |
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| juni |
5% |
14% |
36% |
56% |
56% |
53% |
63% |
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| juli |
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14% |
18% |
13% |
20% |
14% |
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| augustus |
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11% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
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| september |
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2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
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| later |
5% |
16% |
19% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
1% |
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| Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| verkiezingen |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
5/5 |
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| in 2003 |
5% |
11% |
19% |
7% |
6% |
10% |
3% |
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| in
2004 |
23% |
23% |
33% |
28% |
15% |
42% |
24% |
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| in
2005 |
17% |
18% |
13% |
19% |
19% |
23% |
14% |
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| in
2006 |
11% |
10% |
7% |
10% |
12% |
5% |
13% |
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| in
2007 |
35% |
27% |
18% |
29% |
39% |
16% |
41% |
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| weet
ik niet |
10% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
5% |
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| Onder invloed
van de lange formatie is vast te stellen dat kiezers veranderingen |
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| willen van ons politieke
systeem. |
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| Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
5/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Ja |
64% |
77% |
89% |
87% |
93% |
91% |
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| Nee |
31% |
20% |
9% |
12% |
6% |
9% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
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| Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
5/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
36% |
34% |
42% |
29% |
39% |
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| Afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
52% |
57% |
54% |
63% |
53% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
13% |
9% |
5% |
9% |
8% |
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| Vorming regering |
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| |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
5/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
45% |
45% |
37% |
52% |
40% |
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| Nederlands systeem |
53% |
47% |
45% |
51% |
37% |
54% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
8% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
5% |
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| Wenst in
regeeraccoord voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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| in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
5/5 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Ja |
61% |
62% |
68% |
55% |
77% |
68% |
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| Nee |
20% |
21% |
18% |
27% |
9% |
22% |
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| Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
14% |
18% |
15% |
10% |
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| Vertrouwen in
politiek en politici |
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| Het vertrouwen
in de politiek en in de diverse hoofdrolspelers is de afgelopen |
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| week weer wat
gestegen na het dieptepunt na de breuk in de formatie. |
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| Maar nog steeds
is het vertrouwen laag tot heel laag te noemen. |
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| Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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| 21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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| 28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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| 11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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| 25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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| 30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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| 06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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| 20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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| 10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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| 24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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| 7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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| 14/4 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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| 5/5 |
4,6 |
5,8 |
3,6 |
5,3 |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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| Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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| Balkenende 21/4 |
4,4 |
6,5 |
2,6 |
5,1 |
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| Balkenende 5/5 |
4,7 |
6,7 |
3,1 |
5,4 |
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| Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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| Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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| Bos 21/4 |
4,9 |
3,6 |
7,0 |
3,5 |
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| Bos 5/5 |
4,9 |
4,0 |
6,9 |
3,7 |
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| Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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| Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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| Zalm 21/4 |
4,9 |
5,7 |
3,5 |
6,7 |
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| Zalm 5/5 |
5,2 |
6,0 |
3,7 |
7,2 |
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| Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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| Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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| Marijnissen 21/4 |
5,2 |
4,1 |
6,4 |
4,2 |
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| Marijnissen 5/5 |
5,3 |
4,4 |
6,5 |
4,2 |
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| Halsema 25/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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| Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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| Halsema 21/4 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
5,9 |
3,8 |
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| Halsema 5/5 |
4,8 |
4,0 |
5,9 |
3,9 |
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| Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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| Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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| Herben 21/4 |
4,0 |
4,7 |
2,7 |
5,0 |
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| Herben 5/5 |
4,1 |
4,7 |
2,9 |
5,4 |
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| Ditrich 21/4 |
4,9 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
4,8 |
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| Ditrich 5/5 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
4,7 |
5,1 |
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