De Stemming van 21 april |
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De bewegingen
binnen het electoraat zijn fors. In de afgelopen week is het CDA verder
weggezakt |
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en heeft de
PvdA een deel van haar verlies goedgemaakt.
D66 blijft het goed doen onder |
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de discussie
over haar deelname aan een CDA-VVD regering. |
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Het
meest opmerkelijke aan de ontwikkelingen van de afgelopen weken is dat het
CDA |
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weer terug bij
"af" is. De positie die zij electoraal in de periode 1994-2002
innam. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
14/4 |
21/4 |
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CDA |
44 |
40 |
34 |
32 |
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PvdA |
42 |
39 |
34 |
38 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
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LPF |
8 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
11 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
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D66 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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De verzwakte
positie van het CDA blijkt ook duidelijk aan dit overzicht. Het CDA stond 8
maanden |
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geleden nog op
46% en inmiddels is het nog maar 30%. Met name onder de VVD-kiezers is |
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de
populariteit van het CDA sterk afgenomen. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
21/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
21/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
21/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
21/4 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
30% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
79% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
26% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
34% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
7% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
4% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
35% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
43% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
95% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
21% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
27% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
21% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
5% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
39% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
22% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
15% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
29% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
22% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
1% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
43% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
2% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
12% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
) heeft CDA gestemd bij
vorige verkiezingen |
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Op de
volgende wijze zien we ook hoezeer het CDA terug aan het vallen is naar de
positie |
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die zij voor
mei 2002 acht jaar had. |
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Voorkeur |
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Geen |
Rooms- |
Pro- |
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CDA |
Allen |
Religie |
Kath. |
test. |
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TK 1998 |
18% |
5% |
25% |
34% |
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TK 2003 |
28% |
11% |
42% |
49% |
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Nu |
20% |
5% |
31% |
37% |
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De formatie |
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Onder invloed
van de crisis in de formatie hebben zich in de afgelopen twee weken |
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veel
verschuivingen voorgedaan. Inmiddels staat qua "gewenste regering"
de combinatie |
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CDA+VVD+D66
op nummer 1. In de afgelopen week is er een stijging geweest van |
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17 naar 28%,
terwijl een voorkeur voor een regering CDA+VVD+LPF gedaald is van |
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28 naar 22%.
Zowel bij CDA als bij VVD staat de combinatie CDA+VVD+D66 op nummer 1. |
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De
slagingskans van deze combinatie is in een week gestegen van 18 naar 66%! |
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Men wordt ook
wat optimistischer over de zittingsduur van een nieuwe regering. Zei vorige |
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week nog 52%
dat nieuwe verkiezingen voor eind 2004 zullen plaatsvinden, inmiddels is dat
44%. |
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Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
47% |
28% |
24% |
15% |
47% |
2% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
24% |
28% |
22% |
34% |
2% |
37% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
15% |
17% |
28% |
41% |
6% |
55% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
7% |
18% |
17% |
2% |
37% |
4% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
3% |
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Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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formatie |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
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CDA+PvdA |
63% |
77% |
8% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
0% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
50% |
23% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
18% |
66% |
66% |
64% |
69% |
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PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
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weet
niet |
8% |
9% |
21% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
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Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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beeindigd |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
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februari |
11% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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maart |
35% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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april |
29% |
25% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
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mei |
15% |
44% |
19% |
29% |
37% |
24% |
30% |
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juni |
5% |
14% |
36% |
40% |
36% |
45% |
41% |
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juli |
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14% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
11% |
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augustus |
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11% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
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later |
5% |
16% |
19% |
9% |
5% |
9% |
9% |
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Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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verkiezingen |
27/1 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
21/4 |
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in 2003 |
5% |
11% |
19% |
15% |
9% |
22% |
7% |
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in
2004 |
23% |
23% |
33% |
29% |
15% |
45% |
22% |
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in
2005 |
17% |
18% |
13% |
14% |
15% |
15% |
13% |
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in
2006 |
11% |
10% |
7% |
12% |
15% |
7% |
12% |
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in
2007 |
35% |
27% |
18% |
23% |
36% |
7% |
36% |
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weet
ik niet |
10% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
10% |
5% |
9% |
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Het oordeel
over de duur van de formatie en de aanpak van de formatie wordt steeds
negatiever. |
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Men lijkt
steeds meer voor veranderingen van het systeem te zijn. |
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Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
21/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
64% |
77% |
88% |
83% |
89% |
93% |
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Nee |
31% |
20% |
12% |
18% |
11% |
6% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
3% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
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Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
21/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
36% |
30% |
34% |
26% |
30% |
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Afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
52% |
60% |
61% |
67% |
58% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
13% |
10% |
5% |
7% |
13% |
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Vorming regering |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
21/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
45% |
48% |
39% |
57% |
49% |
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Nederlands systeem |
53% |
47% |
44% |
55% |
33% |
42% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
10% |
9% |
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Wenst in
regeeraccoord voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
21/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
61% |
62% |
66% |
55% |
77% |
72% |
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Nee |
20% |
21% |
23% |
36% |
11% |
20% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
12% |
9% |
12% |
8% |
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Vertrouwen in
politiek en politici |
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Het vertrouwen
in de politiek dat vorige week abrupt naar 4.3 is gedaald is nog steeds zo
laag. |
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Balkenende is
nog verder gezakt (inmiddels naar 4.4), maar Bos en Zalm staan nu ook onder
de 5.0 |
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Marijnissen
staat nu op nummer 1 met (ook een lage) 5.2. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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21/10 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
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28/10 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
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11/11 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
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25/11 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
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30/12 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
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06/1 |
5.1 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
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20/1 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
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10/2 |
5.8 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
5.4 |
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24/2 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
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7/4 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
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14/4 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
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21/4 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
3.4 |
4.6 |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6.2 |
7.3 |
4.8 |
6.5 |
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Balkenende 20/1 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
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Balkenende 1/3 |
5.9 |
7.4 |
4.9 |
6.4 |
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Balkenende 21/4 |
4.4 |
6.5 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
7.4 |
5.6 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
5.2 |
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Bos 1/3 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
7.4 |
4.7 |
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Bos 21/4 |
4.9 |
3.6 |
7.0 |
3.5 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
4.2 |
7.2 |
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Zalm 1/3 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
4.4 |
7.1 |
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Zalm 21/4 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
3.5 |
6.7 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
6.3 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
4.7 |
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Marijnissen 1/3 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
6.6 |
4.2 |
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Marijnissen 21/4 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
6.4 |
4.2 |
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Halsema 25/11 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
4.6 |
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Halsema 1/3 |
5.2 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
3.9 |
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Halsema 21/4 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
5.9 |
3.8 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
3.1 |
4.7 |
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Herben 1/3 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
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Herben 21/4 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
2.7 |
5.0 |
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Ditrich 1/3 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
5.9 |
4.5 |
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Ditrich 21/4 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
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