De
Stemming van 14 april |
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Het einde van de
formatiepoging van CDA en PvdA heeft forse consquenties voor |
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ons wekelijks onderzoek.
Zo zien we dat PvdA en CDA op fors verlies staan. |
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Alle andere partijen op
winst. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
7/4 |
14/4 |
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CDA |
44 |
40 |
38 |
34 |
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PvdA |
42 |
39 |
34 |
34 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
30 |
34 |
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LPF |
8 |
9 |
8 |
10 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
12 |
11 |
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SP |
9 |
10 |
13 |
12 |
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D66 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale potentie van
de partijen |
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De
positie van de VVD is sterk. Onder de kiezers van het CDA zegt bijna de |
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helft VVD te kunnen
stemmen. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
14/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
14/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
14/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
14/4 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
35% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
83% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
29% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
35% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
14% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
87% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
7% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
38% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
45% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
94% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
17% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
26% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
23% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
4% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
43% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
22% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
33% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
23% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
7% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
42% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
1% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
13% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
) heeft CDA gestemd bij
vorige verkiezingen |
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De formatie |
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De resultaten van
devragen rondom de formatie verschillen deze week aanmerkelijk van die |
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van de voorgaande weken.
Zo zien we de voorkeuren voor regeringen aanmerkelijk verschoven |
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te zijn. En ook de
verwachte uitkomst van de formatie (CDA+VVD+LPF staat nu ruim op de 1e
plaats). |
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Men denkt inmiddels dat
het juni wordt, voordat er een regering zal zijn. |
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72% verwacht nieuwe
verkiezingen voor de "normale" datum van mei 2007. 52% zelf voor
2006. |
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Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
50% |
47% |
28% |
27% |
44% |
4% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
22% |
24% |
28% |
40% |
2% |
52% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
21% |
15% |
17% |
24% |
2% |
36% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
4% |
7% |
18% |
3% |
41% |
6% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
3% |
7% |
9% |
6% |
12% |
2% |
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Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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formatie |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
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CDA+PvdA |
63% |
79% |
77% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
6% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
11% |
50% |
47% |
52% |
55% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
4% |
18% |
20% |
13% |
21% |
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PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
5% |
2% |
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weet
niet |
8% |
5% |
9% |
21% |
23% |
20% |
16% |
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Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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beeindigd |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
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februari |
11% |
12% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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maart |
35% |
37% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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april |
29% |
29% |
25% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
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mei |
15% |
14% |
44% |
19% |
23% |
18% |
19% |
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juni |
5% |
5% |
14% |
36% |
40% |
33% |
34% |
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juli |
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14% |
11% |
15% |
15% |
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augustus |
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11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
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later |
5% |
4% |
16% |
19% |
15% |
23% |
20% |
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Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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verkiezingen |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
14/4 |
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in 2003 |
5% |
5% |
11% |
19% |
13% |
21% |
25% |
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in
2004 |
23% |
22% |
23% |
33% |
27% |
42% |
25% |
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in
2005 |
17% |
19% |
18% |
13% |
15% |
9% |
13% |
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in
2006 |
11% |
12% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
6% |
9% |
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in
2007 |
35% |
33% |
27% |
18% |
29% |
9% |
19% |
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weet
ik niet |
10% |
8% |
12% |
10% |
9% |
12% |
9% |
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De lengte van de
formatie wordt door 86% als te lang ervaren. 64% vindt dat men minder
uitgebreide |
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afspraken moet maken
tijdens de formatie. Ook zien we dat de voorkeur voor een ander politiek
systeem |
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door de huidige crisis
toegenomen is. |
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Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
14/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
64% |
77% |
86% |
82% |
83% |
96% |
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Nee |
31% |
20% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
3% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
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Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
14/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
36% |
29% |
27% |
28% |
36% |
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Afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
52% |
64% |
67% |
61% |
58% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
13% |
8% |
6% |
12% |
6% |
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Vorming regering |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
14/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
45% |
50% |
54% |
48% |
48% |
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Nederlands systeem |
53% |
47% |
42% |
41% |
44% |
46% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
6% |
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Wenst in regeeraccoord
voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
14/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
61% |
62% |
67% |
64% |
71% |
65% |
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Nee |
20% |
21% |
19% |
21% |
12% |
23% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
14% |
15% |
17% |
12% |
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Vertrouwen in politiek en
politici |
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Het vertrouwen in de
politiek is abrupt gedaald naar 4.3. |
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Balkenende en Bos staan
op een dieptepunt en het is opmerkelijk (en verontrustend) dat |
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geen enkele politicus
hoger scoort dan 5.2 |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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14/4 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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Balkenende 1/3 |
5,9 |
7,4 |
4,9 |
6,4 |
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Balkenende 14/4 |
4,6 |
6,6 |
2,9 |
5,2 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 1/3 |
5,7 |
4,9 |
7,4 |
4,7 |
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Bos 14/4 |
5,0 |
4,1 |
6,9 |
3,7 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 1/3 |
5,4 |
5,9 |
4,4 |
7,1 |
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Zalm 14/4 |
5,1 |
5,8 |
3,8 |
6,7 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 1/3 |
5,5 |
4,8 |
6,6 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 14/4 |
5,2 |
4,4 |
6,2 |
4,2 |
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Halsema 25/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 1/3 |
5,2 |
4,5 |
6,3 |
3,9 |
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Halsema 14/4 |
4,8 |
3,8 |
6,0 |
3,7 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 1/3 |
4,2 |
4,6 |
3,0 |
5,4 |
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Herben 14/4 |
4,3 |
5,1 |
2,9 |
5,3 |
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Ditrich 1/3 |
5,2 |
4,7 |
5,9 |
4,5 |
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Ditrich 14/4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
5,6 |
4,5 |
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