De Stemming van 7 april |
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De twee
grootste partijen, CDA en PvdA, staan resp. op 6 en 8 zetels verlies. |
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De VVD
profiteert er per saldo van (2 zetels). |
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SP en Groen
Links staan inmiddels beide op 4 zetels winst. Deze winst komt |
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vooral van de PvdA. |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
31/3 |
7/4 |
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CDA |
44 |
40 |
39 |
38 |
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PvdA |
42 |
39 |
35 |
34 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
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LPF |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
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SP |
9 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
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D66 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale
potentie van de partijen |
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De drie grote
partijen blijven qua potentie dicht bij elkaar liggen. Opmerkelijk |
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is dat onder
de CDA kiezers de PvdA veel minder populair is dan de VVD! |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
7/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
7/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
7/4 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
7/4 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
36% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
87% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
9% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
32% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
34% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
11% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
88% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
3% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
36% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
42% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
98% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
32% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
22% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
3% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
37% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
22% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
11% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
30% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
17% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
22% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
6% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
38% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
2% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
) heeft CDA gestemd bij
vorige verkiezingen |
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Gewenste
regeringscombinatie |
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Als gewenste
combinatie neemt de populariteit van CDA+PvdA af (nu 43%, was 2 maanden
geleden 50%). |
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Een combinatie
met CDA en VVD erin is nu vrijwel even populair (41%) |
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Ook hierbij
valt te zien dat de CDA-kiezers verre de voorkeur geven aan een CDA+VVD
regering (58% tegen 35%). |
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Inmiddels
denkt 89% dat een CDA+PvdA regering er komt. De maand mei wordt gezien als de
maand waarin |
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de regering aantreed. |
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Het aandeel
kiezers dat denkt dat deze nieuwe regering de 4 jaar volmaakt is slechts 27%. |
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Ook bij de CDA
en PvdA kiezers zijn er meer die denken dat die regering het niet haalt. |
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Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
50% |
47% |
43% |
35% |
78% |
3% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
22% |
24% |
24% |
27% |
1% |
53% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
21% |
15% |
17% |
31% |
1% |
34% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
4% |
7% |
7% |
1% |
12% |
6% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
3% |
7% |
9% |
6% |
9% |
4% |
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Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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formatie |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
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CDA+PvdA |
63% |
79% |
77% |
89% |
93% |
89% |
87% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
11% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
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PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
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weet
niet |
8% |
5% |
9% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
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Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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beeindigd |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
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februari |
11% |
12% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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maart |
35% |
37% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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april |
29% |
29% |
25% |
12% |
11% |
16% |
6% |
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mei |
15% |
14% |
44% |
48% |
54% |
45% |
42% |
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juni |
5% |
5% |
14% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
29% |
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juli |
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6% |
5% |
5% |
9% |
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augustus |
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4% |
2% |
5% |
6% |
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later |
5% |
4% |
16% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
8% |
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Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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verkiezingen |
27/1 |
3/2 |
24/3 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
7/4 |
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in 2003 |
5% |
5% |
11% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
8% |
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in
2004 |
23% |
22% |
23% |
30% |
20% |
29% |
40% |
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in
2005 |
17% |
19% |
18% |
19% |
17% |
16% |
26% |
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in
2006 |
11% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
16% |
9% |
7% |
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in
2007 |
35% |
33% |
27% |
27% |
33% |
35% |
12% |
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weet
ik niet |
10% |
8% |
12% |
9% |
11% |
8% |
8% |
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Er is een
grote mate van ontvredenheid over de lengte van de formatie en de Nederlandse
manier om een |
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regering
samen te stellen (met een gedetailleerd regeeraccoord). |
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61% hoopt dat
er voorstellen voor die verandering in het regeeraccoord zullen komen. |
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Deze formatie duurt te
lang |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
7/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
64% |
77% |
74% |
65% |
72% |
86% |
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Nee |
31% |
20% |
24% |
31% |
25% |
12% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
5% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
1% |
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Soort gewenste
kabinetsformatie |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
7/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
34% |
36% |
37% |
41% |
32% |
40% |
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Afspraken binnen kabinet |
54% |
52% |
54% |
51% |
55% |
56% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
12% |
13% |
9% |
8% |
12% |
4% |
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Vorming regering |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
7/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Direct op basis van uitslag |
34% |
45% |
43% |
42% |
42% |
42% |
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Nederlands systeem |
53% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
51% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
13% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
7% |
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Wenst in
regeeraccoord voorstellen voor verandering van kiesstelsel |
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Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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in procenten van: |
17/3 |
31/3 |
7/4 |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Ja |
61% |
62% |
61% |
49% |
64% |
63% |
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Nee |
20% |
21% |
23% |
30% |
16% |
23% |
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Weet niet/geen antwoord |
19% |
17% |
17% |
21% |
20% |
13% |
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Vertrouwen in
politiek en politici |
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Het
vertrouwen in de politiek is naar het niveau van 5.0 gedaald. Dat was het
"normale" niveau in het |
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laatste
kwartaal van 2002. We zien echter nu dat de CDA-ers wat meer vertrouwen
hebben dan toen |
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en de VVD-ers
wat minder dan toen. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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15/3 |
5,3 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
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7/4 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
5,0 |
4,5 |
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Ten opzichte van vorige
week is Balkenende in vertrouwen weer iets
gestegen. |
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Toch is een score van
5.4 laag te noemen. Bos doet het nu voor de tweede
week slecht. |
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Opmerkelijk is
zijn lage score onder de PvdA aanhang (6.6). |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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Balkenende 1/3 |
5,9 |
7,4 |
4,9 |
6,4 |
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Balkenende 7/4 |
5,4 |
7,2 |
4,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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Bos 1/3 |
5,7 |
4,9 |
7,4 |
4,7 |
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Bos 7/4 |
5,0 |
4,7 |
6,6 |
3,7 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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Zalm 1/3 |
5,4 |
5,9 |
4,4 |
7,1 |
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Zalm 7/4 |
5,3 |
6,1 |
4,1 |
7,0 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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Marijnissen 1/3 |
5,5 |
4,8 |
6,6 |
4,2 |
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Marijnissen 7/4 |
5,3 |
4,6 |
6,2 |
4,2 |
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Halsema 25/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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Halsema 1/3 |
5,2 |
4,5 |
6,3 |
3,9 |
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Halsema 7/4 |
4,8 |
4,0 |
5,8 |
3,8 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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Herben 1/3 |
4,2 |
4,6 |
3,0 |
5,4 |
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Herben 7/4 |
4,2 |
4,9 |
2,9 |
5,3 |
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Ditrich 1/3 |
5,2 |
4,7 |
5,9 |
4,5 |
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Ditrich 7/4 |
4,9 |
4,4 |
5,6 |
4,4 |
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