De
Stemming van 24 maart |
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Nog steeds zijn de
verschuivingen per week klein. |
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Deze week dalen CDA,
PvdA en LPF 1 zetel en stijgen VVD, Groen Links en SP er 1. |
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Opmerkelijk is daarnaast
dat de "weet niet" groep deze week duidelijk is gestegen/ |
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Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
17/3 |
24/3 |
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CDA |
44 |
40 |
39 |
38 |
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PvdA |
42 |
39 |
39 |
38 |
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VVD |
28 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
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LPF |
8 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
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Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
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SP |
9 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
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D66 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
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ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Electorale potentie van
de partijen |
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De drie grote partijen
staan vrijwel gelijk. Bij de overige partijen is de SP weer aan |
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het groeien. |
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Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
24/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
24/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
24/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
3/3 |
24/3 |
CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
88% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
31% |
PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
14% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
95% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
6% |
VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
38% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
47% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
97% |
LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
21% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
23% |
GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
20% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
5% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
34% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
20% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
33% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
11% |
SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
24% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
7% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
42% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
11% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
*) kiezer CDA betekent
CDA gestemd in mei 2002/januari 2003 |
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Gewenste
regeringscombinatie |
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Nu het eind van de
formatie nog niet in zicht is en de onenigheid tussen CDA en PvdA rondom |
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de
oorlog in Irak gegroeid is, valt op dat CDA+PvdA minder gewenst wordt. |
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Vooral bij de CDA
aanhang is de voorkeur voor een regering met PvdA fors gedaald. Vorige week |
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was dat nog 56%, nu is
het 41%. |
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Toch denkt men nog
steeds dat er een CDA+PvdA regering uitkomt, maar qua timing verwacht men |
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die regering pas in mei. |
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Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
10/2 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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CDA+PvdA |
48% |
52% |
47% |
41% |
83% |
8% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
22% |
24% |
36% |
1% |
47% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
19% |
15% |
19% |
1% |
37% |
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PvdA+VVD |
4% |
5% |
7% |
2% |
13% |
5% |
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geen
voorkeur |
3% |
3% |
7% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
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Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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formatie |
27/1 |
10/2 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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CDA+PvdA |
63% |
87% |
77% |
81% |
80% |
70% |
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CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
6% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
15% |
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CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
2% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
6% |
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PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
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weet
niet |
8% |
4% |
9% |
9% |
6% |
8% |
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Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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beeindigd |
27/1 |
10/2 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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februari |
11% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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maart |
35% |
38% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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april |
29% |
37% |
25% |
27% |
30% |
18% |
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mei |
15% |
12% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
47% |
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juni |
5% |
6% |
14% |
13% |
14% |
19% |
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later |
5% |
3% |
16% |
16% |
11% |
16% |
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Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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verkiezingen |
27/1 |
10/2 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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in 2003 |
5% |
3% |
11% |
13% |
6% |
8% |
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in
2004 |
23% |
20% |
23% |
21% |
19% |
32% |
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in
2005 |
17% |
19% |
18% |
15% |
16% |
22% |
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in
2006 |
11% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
6% |
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in
2007 |
35% |
39% |
27% |
33% |
32% |
20% |
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weet
ik niet |
10% |
7% |
12% |
7% |
15% |
12% |
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73% van het electoraat
vindt dat de formatie te lang duurt |
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Men
geeft meer de voorkeur aan geen uitgebreide afspraken in een regeeraccoord,
maar |
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besluitvorming binnen
het kabinet. |
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Formatie duurt te lang |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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ja |
73% |
70% |
67% |
82% |
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nee |
22% |
24% |
27% |
14% |
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weet
niet/geen mening |
5% |
7% |
6% |
3% |
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Beste manier om te |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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regeren |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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uitgebreid regeeraccoord |
35% |
34% |
37% |
43% |
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afspraken binnen kabinet |
55% |
54% |
54% |
49% |
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weet
niet/geen voorkeur |
10% |
12% |
9% |
8% |
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Een groot deel der
Nederlanders hoopt dat in het regeeraccoord een aanzet staat |
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tot veranderingen in
het Nederlandse kiesstelsel. |
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Hoopt op veranderingen in |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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kiesstelsel in
regeeraccoord |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
24/3 |
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ja |
60% |
52% |
63% |
64% |
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nee |
23% |
31% |
22% |
20% |
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weet
niet/geen mening |
17% |
17% |
16% |
16% |
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Vertrouwen in politiek en
politici |
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Het vertrouwen in de
politiek is duidelijk aan het teruglopen. Behoudens bij de kiezers van |
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het CDA is de score ten
opzichte van het hoogtepunt, kort na de verkiezingen, duidelijk gedaald. |
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Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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21/10 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
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28/10 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
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11/11 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
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25/11 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
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30/12 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
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06/1 |
5.1 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
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20/1 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
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10/2 |
5.8 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
5.4 |
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24/2 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
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24/3 |
5.1 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
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Het vertrouwen in
Balkenende is inmiddels op het laagste niveau sinds september. |
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We zien in steeds
grotere mate dat bij zowel Balkenende als Bos er een soort |
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polarisatie in vertrouwen
ontstaat. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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Balkenende 07/10 |
6.2 |
7.3 |
4.8 |
6.5 |
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Balkenende 30/12 |
6.3 |
7.6 |
5.0 |
6.6 |
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Balkenende 20/1 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
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Balkenende 24/3 |
5.3 |
7.1 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
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Bos 21/10 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
7.4 |
5.6 |
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Bos 30/12 |
5.7 |
5.4 |
7.4 |
5.5 |
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Bos 20/1 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
5.2 |
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Bos 24/3 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
7.0 |
3.8 |
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Zalm 07/10 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
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Zalm 30/12 |
5.4 |
6.0 |
4.2 |
7.0 |
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Zalm 20/1 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
4.2 |
7.2 |
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Zalm 24/3 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
4.1 |
7.0 |
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Marijnissen 07/10 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
6.3 |
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Marijnissen 30/12 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
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Marijnissen 20/1 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
4.7 |
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Marijnissen 24/3 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
6.4 |
4.0 |
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Halsema 25/11 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
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Halsema 30/12 |
5.4 |
5.1 |
6.3 |
5.1 |
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Halsema 20/1 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
4.6 |
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Halsema 24/3 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
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Herben 21/10 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
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Herben 30/12 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
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Herben 20/1 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
3.1 |
4.7 |
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Herben 24/3 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
3.0 |
5.1 |
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Ditrich 24/3 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
5.7 |
4.4 |
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