| De
Stemming van 15 maart |
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| De
Provinciale Statenverkiezingen hebben een kleine correctie ten gevolge gehad |
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| voor de drie grote
partijen. Per saldo is er eigenlijk sinds eind januari weinig verschoven. |
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| Groen Links, SP, D66 en
LPF blijven dicht bij elkaar. |
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| Peiling politieke
voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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| in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2003 |
27/01 |
8/3 |
15/3 |
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| CDA |
44 |
40 |
38 |
39 |
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| PvdA |
42 |
39 |
37 |
39 |
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| VVD |
28 |
30 |
33 |
31 |
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| LPF |
8 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
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| Groen Links |
8 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
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| SP |
9 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
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| D66 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
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| ChristenUnie |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
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| SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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| Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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| Electorale potentie van
de partijen |
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| De potentie van de VVD
neemt duidelijk af. Dat komt omdat de CDA kiezers |
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| steeds minder
voor de VVD als tweede partij voelen. |
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| De PvdA staat inmiddels
duidelijk op nummer 1. Dat is een groot verschil met |
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| een half jaar geleden. |
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| Partijen die kans maken op een
stem |
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| |
Allen |
kiezer CDA*) |
kiezer PvdA |
kiezer VVD |
| in procenten van: |
9/9 |
20/1 |
1/3 |
15/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
1/3 |
15/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
1/3 |
15/3 |
9/9 |
20/1 |
1/3 |
15/3 |
| CDA |
46% |
36% |
34% |
34% |
91% |
79% |
88% |
91% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
5% |
46% |
32% |
29% |
26% |
| PvdA |
30% |
36% |
36% |
38% |
17% |
26% |
6% |
16% |
93% |
95% |
93% |
93% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
7% |
| VVD |
41% |
35% |
39% |
32% |
47% |
38% |
56% |
37% |
9% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
93% |
87% |
97% |
97% |
| LPF |
15% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
7% |
18% |
11% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
19% |
13% |
26% |
28% |
| GrLinks |
28% |
18% |
21% |
22% |
12% |
9% |
0% |
6% |
55% |
32% |
41% |
35% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
| D66 |
22% |
17% |
20% |
22% |
11% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
39% |
20% |
27% |
28% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
17% |
| SP |
20% |
23% |
22% |
22% |
11% |
14% |
4% |
6% |
42% |
32% |
38% |
39% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
1% |
| ChristenUnie |
7% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
12% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
| SGP |
4% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
| *) kiezer CDA betekent
CDA gestemd in mei 2002/januari 2003 |
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| Gewenste
regeringscombinatie |
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| Volgens de kiezers komt
de CDA+PvdA regering steeds dichterbij. 91% van de |
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| kiezers denkt dat deze
regering er komt. 54% wil deze regering. (De hoogste score |
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| sinds de verkiezingen.
Een combinatie tussen CDA+VVD neemt qua voorkeur |
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| af. Nog maar 34% noemt
deze combinatie (was na de verkiezingen 45%). |
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| Het moment dat de
fromatie beeindigd wordt langzamerhand geschat op eind april/begin mei. |
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| Regeringsvoorkeuren |
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| Gewenste regering |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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27/1 |
3/2 |
10/2 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
48% |
50% |
52% |
54% |
56% |
83% |
10% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
20% |
22% |
22% |
21% |
25% |
1% |
48% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
25% |
21% |
19% |
13% |
17% |
1% |
35% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
4% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
1% |
12% |
4% |
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| geen
voorkeur |
3% |
3% |
3% |
6% |
1% |
4% |
3% |
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| Verwachte uitkomst |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| formatie |
27/1 |
3/2 |
10/2 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
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| CDA+PvdA |
63% |
79% |
87% |
91% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
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| CDA+VVD+LPF |
22% |
11% |
6% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
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| CDA+VVD+D66 |
7% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
3% |
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| PvdA+VVD |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
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| weet
niet |
8% |
5% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
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| Wanneer formatie |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| beeindigd |
27/1 |
3/2 |
10/2 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
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| februari |
11% |
12% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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| maart |
35% |
37% |
38% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
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| april |
29% |
29% |
37% |
44% |
51% |
50% |
27% |
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| mei |
15% |
14% |
12% |
39% |
39% |
36% |
47% |
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| juni |
5% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
14% |
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| later |
5% |
4% |
3% |
6% |
2% |
5% |
12% |
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| Datum nieuwe |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| verkiezingen |
27/1 |
3/2 |
10/2 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
15/3 |
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| in 2003 |
5% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
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| in
2004 |
23% |
22% |
20% |
22% |
15% |
18% |
36% |
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| in
2005 |
17% |
19% |
19% |
17% |
13% |
15% |
25% |
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| in
2006 |
11% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
13% |
10% |
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| in
2007 |
35% |
33% |
39% |
35% |
43% |
41% |
17% |
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| weet
ik niet |
10% |
8% |
7% |
13% |
17% |
10% |
9% |
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| Vertrouwen in politiek
en politici |
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| Het vertrouwen in de
politiek is duidelijk aan het teruglopen. Behoudens bij de kiezers van |
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| het CDA is de score ten
opzichte van het hoogtepunt, kort na de verkiezingen, duidelijk gedaald. |
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| Vertrouwen in de politiek |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
VVD |
PvdA |
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| 21/10 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
4,9 |
4,9 |
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| 28/10 |
4,6 |
5,1 |
4,7 |
4,1 |
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| 11/11 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,1 |
4,9 |
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| 25/11 |
4,8 |
5,4 |
5,0 |
4,4 |
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| 30/12 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
4,2 |
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| 06/1 |
5,1 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
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| 20/1 |
5,5 |
5,9 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
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| 10/2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,0 |
5,4 |
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| 24/2 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
5,3 |
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| 15/3 |
5,3 |
6,1 |
5,5 |
4,9 |
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| Het vertrouwen in
Balkenende is inmiddels op het laagste niveau sinds september. |
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| We zien in steeds
grotere mate dat bij zowel Balkenende als Bos er een soort |
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| polarisatie in vertrouwen
ontstaat. |
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kiezer |
kiezer |
kiezer |
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Allen |
CDA |
PvdA |
VVD |
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| Balkenende 07/10 |
6,2 |
7,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
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| Balkenende 30/12 |
6,3 |
7,6 |
5,0 |
6,6 |
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| Balkenende 20/1 |
6,3 |
7,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
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| Balkenende 15/3 |
5,5 |
7,2 |
4,5 |
5,8 |
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| Bos 21/10 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
7,4 |
5,6 |
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| Bos 30/12 |
5,7 |
5,4 |
7,4 |
5,5 |
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| Bos 20/1 |
5,9 |
5,7 |
8,0 |
5,2 |
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| Bos 15/3 |
5,8 |
5,4 |
7,5 |
4,4 |
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| Zalm 07/10 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
6,2 |
7,5 |
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| Zalm 30/12 |
5,4 |
6,0 |
4,2 |
7,0 |
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| Zalm 20/1 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
4,2 |
7,2 |
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| Zalm 15/3 |
5,1 |
5,6 |
4,2 |
6,8 |
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| Marijnissen 07/10 |
6,8 |
6,6 |
7,3 |
6,3 |
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| Marijnissen 30/12 |
6,1 |
5,8 |
6,8 |
5,6 |
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| Marijnissen 20/1 |
5,6 |
5,4 |
6,5 |
4,7 |
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| Marijnissen 15/3 |
5,5 |
5,0 |
6,7 |
4,1 |
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| Halsema 25/11 |
5,1 |
4,8 |
5,9 |
4,7 |
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| Halsema 30/12 |
5,4 |
5,1 |
6,3 |
5,1 |
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| Halsema 20/1 |
5,1 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
4,6 |
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| Halsema 15/3 |
5,0 |
4,2 |
6,1 |
3,8 |
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| Herben 21/10 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
2,9 |
4,2 |
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| Herben 30/12 |
4,1 |
4,3 |
3,0 |
4,4 |
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| Herben 20/1 |
4,5 |
4,7 |
3,1 |
4,7 |
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| Herben 15/3 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
3,2 |
5,0 |
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| Ditrich 15/3 |
5,0 |
4,3 |
6,0 |
4,7 |
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