De Stemming van 14 oktober 2002 |
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De kiezers zijn steeds
meer op drift geraakt. |
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Niet alleen is
de LPF weggezakt naar nog minder dan 20% van haar verkiezingsuitslag, |
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maar ook bij
de andere partijen worden de kiezers steeds beweeglijker. |
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Opmerkelijk is
dat in de afgelopen week de positie van het CDA versterkt is ten koste |
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van die van de VVD. |
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CDA en VVD
tezamen hebben inmiddels 77 zetels. |
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De drie linkse
partijen winnen gezamenlijk 15 zetels, met de SP als grootste winnaar. |
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Opmerkelijk is
tevens dat D66 blijft wegzakken. |
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Peiling
politieke voorkeur 14 oktober 2002 |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2002 |
14/10 |
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CDA |
43 |
51 |
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LPF |
26 |
4 |
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VVD |
24 |
26 |
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PvdA |
23 |
28 |
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Groen Links |
10 |
14 |
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SP |
9 |
15 |
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D66 |
7 |
5 |
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ChristenUnie |
4 |
4 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
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LN |
2 |
1 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
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Verloop van politieke voorkeur |
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Verk. |
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in zetels Tweede Kamer |
TK 2002 |
2/9 |
16/9 |
30/9 |
14/10 |
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CDA |
43 |
47 |
47 |
43 |
51 |
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LPF |
26 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
4 |
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VVD |
24 |
26 |
25 |
27 |
26 |
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PvdA |
23 |
27 |
27 |
25 |
28 |
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GrLinks |
10 |
12 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
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SP |
9 |
12 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
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D66 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
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5 |
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ChristenUnie |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
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SGP |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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LN |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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Totaal |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
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Vertrouwen in
het kabinet Balkenende |
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De laatste
twee weken zakt het vertrouwen in het kabinet fors weg. Van een niveau van 4.8 |
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via 4.3 is het nu gedaald naar
4.0. |
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Opmerkelijk
daarbij is dat van de regeringspartijen met name de aanhang van de VVD |
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een zeer lage score
vertoont. |
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rapportcijfers |
|
Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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10 is zeer goed, 1 is
zeer slecht |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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2/9 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
3.1 |
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14/10 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
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Vertrouwen in de
Minister President |
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Ook het
vertrouwen in de Minister-President is aan het dalen. |
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Van een score
van 6.5 is het gedaald naar 6.0. Toch is hij nog de hoogst scorende in de |
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regering. |
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rapportcijfers |
|
Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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10 is zeer goed, 1 is
zeer slecht |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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2/9 |
6.5 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
5.2 |
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14/10 |
6.0 |
7.4 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
4.4 |
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Oordeel over
afzonderlijke ministers |
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In feite
toornt Balkenende hoog uit boven de andere ministers van het kabinet. |
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Terwijl
Heinsbroek het een hele tijd nog vrij goed deed, lijkt het erop dat de
LPF |
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er alles aan
doet om datgene wat nog enigszins scoort af te breken. |
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Niet alleen is
hij fors gedaald bij de best scorende ministers (van 30% naar 22%), maar bij |
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de slechtst
scorende ministers is hij veruit de koploper (van 28 naar 48%) |
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De afgelopen
week heeft ervoor gezorgd dat ook Bomhoff hoog op de lijst van |
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slechts
scorende ministers is terechtgekomen (38% vindt hem het slecht doen). |
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Ministers uit
het kabinet Balkenende die het goed doen |
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2/9/02 |
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Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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in procenten van |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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Jan
Peter Balkenende |
67 |
88 |
68 |
71 |
42 |
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Herman
Heinsbroek |
30 |
32 |
57 |
34 |
9 |
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Hilbrand
Nawijn |
23 |
24 |
53 |
23 |
3 |
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Piet
Hein Donner |
22 |
29 |
25 |
21 |
11 |
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Niemand |
22 |
9 |
11 |
18 |
44 |
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14/10/02 |
|
Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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in procenten van |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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Jan Peter
Balkenende |
61 |
89 |
72 |
63 |
29 |
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Herman
Heinsbroek |
22 |
21 |
50 |
27 |
0 |
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Jaap de
Hoop Scheffer |
21 |
36 |
21 |
24 |
8 |
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Piet Hein
Donner |
19 |
29 |
27 |
22 |
7 |
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Niemand |
25 |
9 |
11 |
24 |
48 |
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Ministers uit
het kabinet Balkenende die het slecht doen |
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2/9/02 |
|
Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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in procenten van |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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Hilbrand
Nawijn |
37 |
29 |
10 |
36 |
67 |
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Herman
Heinsbroek |
28 |
24 |
8 |
24 |
54 |
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Eduard
Bomhoff |
24 |
15 |
11 |
23 |
45 |
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Niemand |
40 |
48 |
55 |
40 |
17 |
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14/102002 |
|
Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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in procenten van |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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Herman
Heinsbroek |
48 |
42 |
22 |
41 |
76 |
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Hilbrand
Nawijn |
40 |
25 |
10 |
39 |
66 |
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Eduard
Bomhoff |
38 |
36 |
15 |
42 |
57 |
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Niemand |
23 |
24 |
37 |
24 |
12 |
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Verwachte
levensduur van het kabinet |
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De afgelopen
twee weken is het pessimisme over de levensduur van het kabinet |
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fors gestegen.
Nog maar 14% denkt dat ze het eind van de rit halen (was 6 weken |
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geleden nog 24%) |
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Inmiddels
denkt 67% der Nederlanders dat ze de volgende zomer niet halen. |
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Dit was zes
weken geleden nog 42%. |
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Verwachte
levensduur van het kabinet |
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2/9 |
7/10 |
14/10 |
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Ze
blijven 4 jaar zitten |
24 |
17 |
14 |
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Ze vallen in 2005 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
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….. in 2004 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
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…. de 2e helft van
2003 |
24 |
19 |
13 |
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…. de 1e helft van
2003 |
35 |
45 |
45 |
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…. de 2e helft van 2002 |
7 |
14 |
22 |
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Totaal |
100 |
100 |
100 |
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Vertrouwen in
fractievoorzitters |
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Marijnissen
staat al een tijdje fier aan kop. Hij scoort eigenlijk over de hele
linie |
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voldoende.
Zalm scoort het best bij de regeringsparijten, maar wat minder bij de
oppositie. |
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Rosenmoller
doet het slecht bij de LPF aanhang, maar bij de rest scoort hij voldoende. |
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Van
Nieuwenhoven doet het in feite redelijk over de hele linie. Zelfs de PvdA
aanhang scoort |
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niet hoog. |
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Ten slotte
scoort Wijnschenk dramatisch slecht, ook bij de aanhang van de LPF. |
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Mate van
vertrouwen in de fractievoorzitters |
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14/10/2002 |
|
Stemgedrag TK 2002 |
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in procenten van |
Allen |
CDA |
LPF |
VVD |
PvdA |
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Marijnissen |
6.9 |
6.5 |
5.8 |
6.7 |
7.5 |
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Zalm |
6.5 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
5.9 |
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Rosenmoller |
6.3 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
6.4 |
7.6 |
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De Graaf |
6.1 |
5.8 |
4.8 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
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Van
Nieuwenhoven |
6.0 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
7.0 |
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Verhagen |
5.8 |
6.7 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
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Wijnschenk |
3.4 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
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